Simulation 43
United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 43: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.31 in 2046; 88 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 43
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 44 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.31 (+1.86)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.39 −0.067 |
| 2028 |
| 16.35 −0.033 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.40 +0.047 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.55 +0.153 | |
| 2031 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.64 +0.085 |
| 2032 |
| 16.71 +0.068 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.74 +0.036 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.91 +0.165 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.05 +0.136 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.17 +0.127 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.31 +0.143 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.48 +0.163 | |
| 2039 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.58 +0.102 |
| 2040 |
| 17.67 +0.089 | |
| 2041 |
| Market access opening | 17.77 +0.097 |
| 2042 |
| 17.94 +0.175 | |
| 2043 |
| 18.12 +0.181 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.19 +0.071 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.26 +0.069 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.31 +0.054 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.013 | −143.3 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.119 | +9.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.026 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.055 | +3.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.037 | +3.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.043 | −3.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 20.00 | +5.33 | +10.43 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +10.20 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.37 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 19.97 | +4.72 | +6.26 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.19 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 19.34 | +4.67 | +5.08 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.30 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +6.48 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.27 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 19.60 | +4.10 | +4.07 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.30 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.41 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.38 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.35 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.25 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.27 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.44 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.41 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.56 | +3.89 | +5.16 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +0.85 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.29 | +3.79 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.95 | +3.70 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.08 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.66 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.39 | +3.06 | +5.02 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.17 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.06 | +3.06 | +3.41 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.37 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 19.06 | +3.06 | +4.96 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.71 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.36 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.99 | +2.99 | +3.68 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.18 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.19 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.73 | +2.73 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.10 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 18.12 | +2.52 | +3.32 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.04 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 20.00 | +2.33 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 17.71 | +2.11 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.51 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 19.42 | +2.09 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.54 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.05 | +2.05 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.37 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 19.25 | +2.00 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.84 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 17.18 | +1.98 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.26 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.94 | +1.94 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.15 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 18.56 | +1.89 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.21 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.33 | +1.83 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.30 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.32 | +1.82 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.27 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.30 | +1.80 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.49 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.33 | +1.73 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 18.08 | +1.68 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.23 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 15.67 | +1.67 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.17 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 18.86 | +1.66 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.32 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 18.20 | +1.63 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.63 | +1.63 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.56 | +1.56 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 18.56 | +1.56 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.22 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.42 | +1.42 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.39 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.29 | +1.29 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 18.94 | +1.27 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 18.85 | +1.10 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.26 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 18.37 | +0.97 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.09 | +0.84 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.20 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.40 | +0.80 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 19.01 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.77 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.12 | +0.62 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.82 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.61 | +0.48 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.26 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.29 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 17.33 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.48 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.73 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.57 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.42 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.29 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.99 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.27 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.14 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.14 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 17.20 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.36 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.29 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.29 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 17.93 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.68 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.16 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.30 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.14 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.10 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.32 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.88 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.32 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.12 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.05 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.00 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.91 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.08 |
Seed 43 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.