Simulation 5
United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.57 in 2046; 65 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.57 (+2.12)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 4 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.51 +0.051 | |
| 2028 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.44 −0.069 |
| 2029 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.63 +0.196 |
| 2030 |
| 16.84 +0.211 | |
| 2031 |
| 17.08 +0.237 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.27 +0.184 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.38 +0.118 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.47 +0.083 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.61 +0.139 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.77 +0.164 | |
| 2037 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.93 +0.166 |
| 2038 |
| 18.11 +0.176 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 18.33 +0.215 |
| 2040 |
| 18.51 +0.186 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 18.64 +0.132 | |
| 2042 | No actions | Middle East settlement | 18.66 +0.013 |
| 2043 | No actions | Core disaster | 18.63 −0.023 |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.66 +0.031 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.61 −0.053 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.57 −0.041 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.021 | −144.3 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.106 | +8.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.032 | −2.5 | −0.20 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.048 | +2.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.040 | +2.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.015 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.94 | +5.27 | +5.67 | −0.18 | +0.58 | +0.10 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 19.78 | +5.11 | +4.94 | −0.34 | +0.51 | +0.43 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 19.95 | +4.95 | +10.58 | −0.16 | +0.65 | +0.33 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +3.78 | −0.10 | +0.87 | +0.54 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.74 | +4.41 | +5.38 | −0.37 | +0.45 | +0.42 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +6.69 | −0.16 | +0.58 | +0.44 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.26 | −0.17 | +0.48 | +0.88 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.27 | −0.11 | +0.48 | +0.53 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.86 | +3.86 | +3.99 | −0.34 | +0.51 | +0.47 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.99 | +3.74 | +3.60 | −0.10 | +1.37 | +0.15 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 19.74 | +3.74 | +4.87 | −0.37 | +0.45 | +0.38 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.72 | +3.72 | +3.12 | −0.39 | +0.56 | +0.46 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.99 | +3.66 | +3.72 | −0.10 | +0.87 | +0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 19.96 | +3.63 | +3.80 | −0.17 | +0.54 | +0.36 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.97 | +3.47 | +5.67 | −0.17 | +0.59 | +0.67 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.06 | +3.39 | +2.76 | −0.35 | +0.45 | +0.53 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.29 | +3.29 | +2.56 | −0.32 | +0.50 | +0.55 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 18.36 | +3.16 | +2.44 | −0.24 | +0.62 | +0.34 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +1.51 | −0.10 | +1.32 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.96 | +2.96 | +3.80 | −0.17 | +0.58 | +0.53 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 18.49 | +2.89 | +1.84 | −0.26 | +0.76 | +0.55 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.37 | +2.87 | +2.58 | −0.29 | +0.54 | +0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 19.49 | +2.82 | +1.79 | −0.10 | +0.87 | +0.26 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.80 | +2.80 | +2.31 | −0.36 | +0.46 | +0.39 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 19.78 | +2.78 | +1.86 | −0.41 | +1.18 | +0.15 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.18 | +2.68 | +1.60 | −0.27 | +0.76 | +0.59 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 17.92 | +2.67 | +2.29 | −0.31 | +0.44 | +0.26 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 16.66 | +2.66 | +2.06 | −0.43 | +0.79 | +0.24 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 19.89 | +2.64 | +2.52 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.81 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.63 | +2.63 | +2.45 | −0.36 | +0.19 | +0.36 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 17.25 | +2.58 | +1.74 | −0.44 | +0.79 | +0.49 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.17 | +2.57 | +2.65 | −0.62 | +0.40 | +0.14 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 19.73 | +2.48 | +2.91 | −0.36 | +0.46 | +0.17 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 18.84 | +2.44 | +2.17 | −0.25 | +0.26 | +0.26 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.43 | +2.43 | +1.96 | −0.53 | +0.80 | +0.19 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.86 | +2.36 | +1.85 | −0.36 | +0.55 | +0.53 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.78 | +2.28 | +2.13 | −0.36 | +0.46 | +0.39 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 19.57 | +2.24 | +1.55 | −0.60 | +0.81 | +0.52 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.88 | +1.88 | +2.01 | −0.38 | +1.05 | +0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 15.77 | +1.77 | +1.67 | −0.50 | +0.39 | +0.21 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 19.93 | +1.60 | +2.35 | −0.19 | +0.99 | +0.76 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 18.65 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.20 | +0.61 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.48 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +1.28 | +0.28 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 17.36 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +1.26 | +0.33 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 18.95 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +1.34 | +0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 17.61 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.83 | +0.48 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 18.62 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.91 | +0.54 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 19.02 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +1.30 | +0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 17.52 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.80 | +0.65 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.58 | +0.98 | +0.53 | −0.51 | +0.79 | +0.17 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.09 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +1.05 | +0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.43 | +0.93 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.89 | +0.38 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.17 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.67 | +0.45 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 18.20 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.80 | +0.52 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 16.83 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.81 | +0.53 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 17.76 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.80 | +0.40 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 17.40 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.80 | +0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.96 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.76 | +0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 17.71 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.80 | +0.34 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 17.67 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.80 | +0.30 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 15.32 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.79 | +0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.25 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.87 | +0.33 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.80 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.77 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.08 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.81 | +0.22 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.49 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.55 | +0.28 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 18.85 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.55 | +0.25 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 17.32 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.50 | +0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.94 | +0.19 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.40 | +0.31 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.93 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.26 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.35 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.40 | +0.28 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.77 | +0.10 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.11 | +0.20 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.49 | +0.09 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.22 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.74 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.26 | +0.01 |
Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.