Simulation 50
United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 50: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.27 in 2046; 72 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 50
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.27 (+1.82)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.50 +0.044 | |
| 2028 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.36 −0.133 |
| 2029 |
| 16.48 +0.113 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.66 +0.183 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.84 +0.177 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.01 +0.168 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.14 +0.130 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.26 +0.123 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.43 +0.169 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.57 +0.143 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.72 +0.151 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.85 +0.129 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.98 +0.132 | |
| 2040 |
| 18.11 +0.127 | |
| 2041 |
| 18.17 +0.059 | |
| 2042 |
| 18.20 +0.025 | |
| 2043 |
| 18.22 +0.024 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.24 +0.024 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.26 +0.017 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.27 +0.010 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.021 | −144.3 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.106 | +8.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.032 | −2.5 | −0.20 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.048 | +2.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.040 | +2.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.015 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 20.00 | +5.33 | +10.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 20.00 | +5.33 | +5.19 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.30 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +10.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +6.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.31 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 19.40 | +4.20 | +4.17 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.33 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.58 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.55 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.38 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.95 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.25 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 19.47 | +3.97 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.42 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 20.00 | +3.75 | +5.66 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.15 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.31 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +5.71 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.26 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.57 | +3.57 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.54 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +5.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.10 | +3.43 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.75 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.90 | +3.40 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.49 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 20.00 | +3.33 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.58 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.46 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.96 | +2.96 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.51 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.21 | +2.88 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.14 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.68 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.25 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 19.89 | +2.56 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.29 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.16 | +2.56 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.09 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.98 | +2.48 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.47 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.47 | +2.47 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.29 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 18.03 | +2.43 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 15.92 | +2.42 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.87 | +2.37 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.29 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.35 | +2.35 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 17.52 | +2.27 | +2.35 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.08 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.68 | +2.18 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 17.63 | +2.03 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.39 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 20.00 | +2.00 | +2.76 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.21 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 15.96 | +1.96 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.23 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 15.84 | +1.84 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.29 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 20.00 | +1.67 | +1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.73 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.57 | +1.57 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 16.23 | +1.56 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.18 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 19.21 | +1.54 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 15.28 | +1.28 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.14 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 17.53 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.73 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.59 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.65 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.84 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.49 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.96 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 16.67 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.93 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.59 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 17.79 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.34 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 16.18 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.34 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.90 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.14 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.44 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.87 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.28 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.61 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.43 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.47 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.26 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.21 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.46 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.38 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.01 | +0.01 | +0.48 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.15 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.68 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 16.55 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.14 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 18.38 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.29 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.95 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.27 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.18 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.24 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 16.93 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.08 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.92 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.24 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.19 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.43 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 17.02 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.33 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.31 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.59 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.22 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.71 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.17 |
Seed 50 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.