Simulation 12
United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 12: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.06 in 2046; 99 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 12
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.06 (+1.60)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.53 +0.053 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.65 +0.119 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.80 +0.146 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.95 +0.152 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.06 +0.108 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.15 +0.093 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.23 +0.074 | |
| 2035 |
| Regional war spillover | 17.11 −0.119 |
| 2036 |
| 17.24 +0.136 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.37 +0.131 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.46 +0.090 | |
| 2039 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.57 +0.108 |
| 2040 |
| 17.72 +0.147 | |
| 2041 |
| AI labour shock | 17.73 +0.014 |
| 2042 |
| 17.75 +0.016 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.75 +0.002 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.86 +0.114 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.97 +0.104 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.06 +0.086 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.825 | −131.1 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.099 | +6.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.052 | +2.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.084 | +5.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.34 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.65 | +4.98 | +8.04 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 19.18 | +4.51 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.42 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.92 | +4.42 | +4.87 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.96 | +4.21 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.24 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.46 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 19.08 | +3.83 | +4.20 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.18 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.77 | +3.77 | +4.08 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.18 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 20.00 | +3.75 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.15 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.66 | +3.66 | +3.85 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.34 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.33 | +3.66 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.72 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.43 | +3.43 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.12 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.71 | +3.21 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.54 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.08 | +3.08 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.38 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.05 | +3.05 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.40 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.93 | +2.93 | +3.50 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.18 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 18.33 | +2.83 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.40 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.15 | +2.82 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.79 | +2.79 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.33 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.76 | +2.76 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.63 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.51 | +2.51 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.08 | +2.48 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 18.06 | +2.46 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.56 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 17.65 | +2.45 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.18 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 18.02 | +2.42 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 18.73 | +2.40 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 19.02 | +2.35 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.29 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 16.28 | +2.28 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.61 | +2.11 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.25 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 19.01 | +2.01 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.36 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 19.19 | +1.86 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.71 | +1.71 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.83 | +1.58 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.81 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.59 | +1.34 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.14 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.82 | +1.32 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.58 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.25 | +1.25 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.42 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 17.56 | +1.16 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.27 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 18.30 | +1.10 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.20 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.04 | +1.04 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.58 | +1.01 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.94 | +0.94 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.44 | +0.94 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.33 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.51 | +0.91 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.87 | +0.87 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.20 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 17.82 | +0.82 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.89 | +0.76 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.01 | +0.76 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.10 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 18.05 | +0.65 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 18.27 | +0.60 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.05 | +0.55 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.25 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.42 | +0.42 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.15 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.68 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.64 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.71 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.30 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.33 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 17.03 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.29 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.52 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.28 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 17.00 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.29 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 17.24 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.15 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.26 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.28 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.29 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 18.18 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.38 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.18 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.36 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.10 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.18 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.59 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.11 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.23 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 17.81 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.21 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.10 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.02 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.03 |
Seed 12 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.