Simulation 13
United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.59 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.59 (+1.13)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.53 +0.053 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.65 +0.119 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.80 +0.146 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.95 +0.152 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.06 +0.109 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 17.02 −0.036 |
| 2034 |
| 17.10 +0.081 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 16.81 −0.291 |
| 2036 |
| 16.95 +0.142 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.09 +0.139 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.20 +0.101 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.05 −0.148 |
| 2040 |
| 17.16 +0.110 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.31 +0.149 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.40 +0.093 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.50 +0.098 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 17.51 +0.011 |
| 2045 |
| 17.55 +0.036 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.59 +0.043 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.825 | −131.1 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.099 | +6.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.052 | +2.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.084 | +5.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.61 | +4.94 | +8.04 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.10 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 19.88 | +4.88 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.21 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.94 | +4.19 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.29 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 18.77 | +4.10 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.88 | +3.88 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.16 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.59 | +3.26 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.74 | +3.24 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.54 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.33 | +3.08 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.07 | +3.07 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.06 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.03 | +3.03 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.38 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 18.27 | +3.02 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.91 | +2.91 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.91 | +2.91 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.51 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 18.42 | +2.75 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.34 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.90 | +2.57 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.23 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.53 | +2.53 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.50 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.50 | +2.50 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.38 | +2.38 | +3.50 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 15.81 | +2.31 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 17.79 | +2.29 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.21 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.19 | +2.19 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.39 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 17.78 | +2.18 | +2.35 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.52 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 17.77 | +2.17 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.02 | +2.02 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.14 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 17.20 | +2.00 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.18 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 15.96 | +1.96 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.07 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.56 | +1.96 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 18.06 | +1.66 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.18 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.14 | +1.64 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.17 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.55 | +1.55 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.28 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.54 | +1.54 | +2.90 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.52 | +1.52 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 18.25 | +1.25 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.29 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 18.58 | +1.18 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.57 | +1.07 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.28 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 17.22 | +0.89 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.35 | +0.85 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.38 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.07 | +0.82 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.12 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.09 | +0.76 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.27 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.89 | +0.69 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.24 | +0.67 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 17.88 | +0.63 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.52 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 17.27 | +0.60 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.17 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 17.53 | +0.53 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.62 | +0.49 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 17.97 | +0.37 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.36 | +0.36 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.99 | +0.32 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.55 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.66 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.66 | +0.16 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.26 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.39 | +0.14 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.18 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.55 | −0.20 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.39 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.34 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.64 | −0.36 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.21 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.69 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.35 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.12 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 15.85 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.11 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.44 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.26 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.43 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.65 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.05 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.64 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.24 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.65 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.37 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.45 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.70 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.21 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 15.88 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.80 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.71 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.03 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.