A good simulation (90th percentile) · mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-greedy

Simulation 5

United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.38 in 2046; 75 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.38 (+1.92); From 16.45
Rank by index: 1; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 2 shocks; 4 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 33 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33 Build Foundational Education 33 Build Advanced Education 33		16.48 +0.027
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 33 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33 Build Foundational Education 33 Build Advanced Education 33	Breadbasket failure	16.39 −0.096
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 33 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 33 Build Foundational Education 33 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33	Middle East settlement	16.55 +0.169
2030	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 33 Build Economic Output & Productivity 33 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 33 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Partner Global Value Chain Position 33		16.75 +0.195
2031	Build Economic Output & Productivity 34 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 34 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 34 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 34 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 34		16.97 +0.222
2032	Build Early Childhood Development 34 Build Economic Output & Productivity 34 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 34 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 34 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 34		17.10 +0.127
2033	Build Early Childhood Development 34 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 34 Build Population Health 34 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 34 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 34		17.19 +0.095
2034	Build Early Childhood Development 35 Build Population Health 35 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 35 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 35 Build Labour & Employment 35		17.27 +0.073
2035	Buy Artificial Intelligence 35 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 35 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 35 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 35 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 35		17.38 +0.113
2036	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 35 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 35 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 35 Build Health System Capability 35 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 35		17.50 +0.120
2037	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 35 Build Health System Capability 35 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 35 Partner Space Technologies 35 Partner Digital & Services Trade 35	Water-efficient food leap	17.64 +0.143
2038	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 35 Build Labour & Employment 35 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 35 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 35 Build Health System Capability 35		17.75 +0.113
2039	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 36 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 36 Buy Energy Technologies 36 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 36 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 36	Automated discovery step	18.02 +0.263
2040	Partner Space Technologies 36 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 36 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 36 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 36 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 36		18.25 +0.227
2041	Build Internal Security & Order 38 Build Resource Infrastructure 38 Buy Energy Infrastructure 38 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 38 Partner Space Technologies 38		18.47 +0.221
2042	No actions	Middle East settlement	18.58 +0.113
2043	No actions	Core disaster	18.51 −0.068
2044	No actions		18.52 +0.005
2045	No actions		18.44 −0.076
2046	No actions		18.38 −0.064

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.825	−131.1	−4.40
No shocks	+0.099	+6.8	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−1.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.052	+2.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.084	+5.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.189	+14.5	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	19.86	+5.19	+8.07	−0.23	+0.55	+0.09
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.93	+4.93	+7.92	−0.23	+0.62	+0.34
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	18.37	+4.87	+4.77	−0.46	+0.53	+0.03
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	19.52	+4.32	+3.87	−0.36	+0.59	+0.23
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.98	+4.23	+4.95	−0.24	+0.55	+0.35
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.55	+4.22	+3.98	−0.52	+0.42	+0.34
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.91	−0.24	+0.45	+0.82
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	19.37	+3.87	+2.68	−0.14	+0.83	+0.50
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.54	+3.87	+3.78	−0.52	+0.42	+0.51
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.52	+3.85	+3.36	−0.46	+0.47	+0.47
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.76	+3.76	+2.94	−0.16	+0.45	+0.54
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	19.96	+3.71	+2.48	−0.15	+1.34	+0.12
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.67	+3.67	+3.93	−0.48	+0.48	+0.42
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.95	+3.62	+3.68	−0.15	+0.84	+0.09
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	17.60	+3.60	+3.87	−0.79	+0.36	+0.15
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.57	+3.57	+3.04	−0.46	+0.47	+0.52
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	19.83	+3.50	+3.71	−0.24	+0.51	+0.22
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.95	+3.45	+5.56	−0.23	+0.56	+0.62
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.56	+3.31	+3.06	−0.46	+0.41	+0.30
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	16.94	+2.94	+2.68	−0.63	+0.76	+0.13
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.93	+2.93	+2.63	−0.24	+0.55	+0.50
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	18.82	+2.82	+1.41	−0.14	+1.25	+0.29
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.67	+2.67	+2.24	−0.52	+0.53	+0.42
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	19.54	+2.54	+1.01	−0.14	+1.29	+0.39
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.86	+2.26	+1.25	−0.35	+0.73	+0.64
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	18.17	+2.17	+1.93	−0.48	+0.42	+0.30
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	18.83	+2.16	+1.21	−0.14	+0.83	+0.25
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	19.36	+2.11	+2.02	−0.51	+0.42	+0.17
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	18.18	+2.05	+1.23	−0.36	+1.01	+0.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	16.25	+2.00	+1.46	−0.30	+0.73	+0.12
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.49	+1.99	+1.15	−0.36	+0.73	+0.47
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.96	+1.96	+1.65	−0.49	+0.42	+0.38
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	17.92	+1.92	+1.51	−0.81	+0.75	+0.47
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.91	+1.91	+1.26	−0.58	+1.11	+0.12
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	19.17	+1.84	+1.55	−0.86	+0.75	+0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.36	+1.76	+1.68	−0.79	+0.76	+0.11
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	18.15	+1.75	+1.51	−0.33	+0.24	+0.33
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	15.71	+1.71	+1.54	−0.71	+0.74	+0.14
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.71	+1.71	+1.73	−0.49	+0.15	+0.31
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.07	+1.57	+1.32	−0.50	+0.43	+0.32
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.09	+1.49	+1.86	−0.82	+0.37	+0.09
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.77	+1.44	0.00	−0.24	+0.93	+0.76
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.42	+1.42	+1.30	−0.47	+0.47	+0.12
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	18.62	+1.37	+0.89	−0.32	+0.01	+0.78
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	18.31	+1.22	0.00	−0.35	+1.17	+0.40
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.84	+1.17	0.00	−0.14	+1.28	+0.03
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	17.10	+1.10	0.00	−0.33	+1.23	+0.20
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	17.44	+1.04	0.00	−0.13	+0.79	+0.37
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.18	+0.93	0.00	−0.29	+0.64	+0.58
Land Power	National Security	16.50	17.42	+0.92	0.00	−0.60	+0.77	+0.76
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	15.56	+0.89	0.00	−0.54	+0.76	+0.67
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	18.36	+0.86	0.00	−0.47	+0.85	+0.47
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	18.23	+0.73	0.00	−0.48	+0.88	+0.33
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	18.72	+0.72	0.00	−0.66	+1.27	+0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	17.38	+0.71	0.00	−0.14	+0.77	+0.08
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	18.66	+0.66	0.00	−0.49	+1.04	+0.12
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	15.27	+0.60	0.00	−0.53	+0.76	+0.37
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	17.88	+0.55	0.00	−0.63	+0.77	+0.41
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	18.01	+0.51	0.00	−0.48	+0.53	+0.46
Air Power	National Security	17.00	17.49	+0.49	0.00	−0.61	+0.77	+0.33
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	17.48	+0.48	0.00	−0.61	+0.77	+0.32
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.65	+0.40	0.00	−0.36	+0.74	+0.03
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	17.38	+0.38	0.00	−0.61	+0.77	+0.22
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.31	+0.31	0.00	−0.49	+0.53	+0.26
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	17.88	+0.28	0.00	−0.78	+0.81	+0.24
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.66	+0.26	0.00	−0.50	+0.53	+0.23
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	16.75	+0.18	0.00	−0.73	+0.75	+0.16
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.81	+0.06	0.00	−0.30	+0.25	+0.11
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	17.22	+0.02	0.00	−0.75	+0.37	+0.40
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.38	−0.02	0.00	−0.29	+0.20	+0.06
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.63	−0.04	0.00	−0.29	+0.25	+0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.60	−0.07	0.00	−0.29	+0.09	+0.13
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	16.57	−0.18	0.00	−0.72	+0.37	+0.17

Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.