Simulation 14
United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 14: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.99 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 14
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.99 (+1.54)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.45 0.000 | |
| 2028 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.25 −0.202 |
| 2029 |
| 16.31 +0.056 | |
| 2030 |
| Outbreak defence succeeds | 16.73 +0.421 |
| 2031 |
| 16.84 +0.112 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 16.94 +0.095 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.02 +0.080 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.12 +0.109 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.22 +0.099 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.30 +0.079 | |
| 2037 |
| Regional war spillover | 17.18 −0.121 |
| 2038 |
| 17.30 +0.121 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.19 −0.114 |
| 2040 |
| 17.30 +0.116 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.41 +0.103 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.52 +0.116 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.65 +0.125 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.75 +0.107 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.87 +0.115 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.99 +0.122 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.885 | −135.9 | −4.20 |
| No shocks | +0.296 | +22.6 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.079 | +4.4 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.166 | +12.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.133 | +10.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.90 | +5.23 | +6.70 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.07 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.89 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.32 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.26 | +4.26 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.28 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.98 | +4.23 | +4.90 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.16 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 19.18 | +3.93 | +4.22 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.10 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.82 | +3.82 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.07 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 20.00 | +3.75 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.18 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.61 | +3.61 | +3.66 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.09 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +4.08 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.56 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 18.94 | +3.27 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.53 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.25 | +3.25 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.35 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 17.90 | +3.23 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.40 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.12 | +3.12 | +2.86 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.45 | +3.12 | +3.82 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.53 | +3.03 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.02 | +3.02 | +2.68 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.65 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.56 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.86 | +2.86 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.15 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 18.27 | +2.77 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.22 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 18.34 | +2.74 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.96 | +2.63 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.12 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.18 | +2.58 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 19.18 | +2.51 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.25 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 18.89 | +2.49 | +2.75 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 17.98 | +2.38 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.43 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 16.22 | +2.22 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.08 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.21 | +2.21 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.24 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.03 | +2.03 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.99 | +1.99 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.49 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.71 | +1.71 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.06 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 18.03 | +1.70 | +1.20 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.14 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.65 | +1.65 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.21 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.88 | +1.55 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.25 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.76 | +1.51 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 18.08 | +1.51 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.74 | +1.49 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.45 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.83 | +1.33 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.27 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 18.48 | +1.28 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.21 | +1.21 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.25 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.58 | +1.08 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.27 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 18.08 | +1.08 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.30 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 16.27 | +1.07 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.18 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.57 | +1.07 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 18.07 | +1.07 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.03 | +1.03 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.52 | +1.02 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.13 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.20 | +0.95 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.16 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 19.27 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.79 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 18.03 | +0.63 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.03 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 15.30 | +0.63 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.10 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.51 | +0.38 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 17.92 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.11 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 17.37 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.33 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.90 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 18.52 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.42 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.82 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.36 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.24 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.48 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.27 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.24 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.18 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.74 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.93 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.27 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.84 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.30 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.08 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.11 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 17.64 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.39 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.06 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.11 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.06 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.94 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.08 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.11 |
Seed 14 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.