A good simulation (90th percentile) · mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-mcts-index

Simulation 3

United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.53 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.53 (+2.08); From 16.45
Rank by index: 1; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 33 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 33 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33 Build Foundational Education 33		16.48 +0.029
2028	No actions		16.51 +0.029
2029	No actions	AI labour shock	16.39 −0.127
2030	Buy Technical & Vocational Skills 33 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 33 Build Advanced Education 33 Build Foundational Education 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33		16.29 −0.098
2031	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 29 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 29 Build Advanced Education 29 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 29 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 29		16.23 −0.057
2032	Partner Advanced Education 28 Build Economic Output & Productivity 28 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 28 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 28 Partner Global Value Chain Position 28	Market access opening	16.39 +0.157
2033	Build Economic Output & Productivity 32 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 32 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 32 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 32 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32		16.59 +0.206
2034	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 34 Build Economic Output & Productivity 34 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 34 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 34 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 34		16.81 +0.220
2035	Build Early Childhood Development 35 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 35 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 35		16.94 +0.128
2036	Build Early Childhood Development 35 Buy Artificial Intelligence 35 Partner Digital & Services Trade 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 35		17.05 +0.110
2037	Partner Early Childhood Development 35 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 35 Build Labour & Employment 35 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 35 Build Population Health 35		17.16 +0.109
2038	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 36 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 36 Partner Global Value Chain Position 36 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 36 Build Population Health 36		17.26 +0.104
2039	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 36 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 36 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 36 Build Health System Capability 36 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 36		17.39 +0.127
2040	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 36 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 36 Partner Space Technologies 36 Build Health System Capability 36 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 36		17.49 +0.098
2041	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 36 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 36 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 36 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 36 Partner Space Technologies 36		17.60 +0.108
2042	Buy Space Operations 36 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 36 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 36 Build Labour & Employment 36 Buy Energy Technologies 36	Clean power threshold	17.78 +0.185
2043	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 36 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 36 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 36 Build Labour & Employment 36 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 36		17.97 +0.186
2044	Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 38 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 38 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 38 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 38 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 38		18.18 +0.212
2045	Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 38 Buy Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 38 Partner Space Technologies 38 Buy Energy Infrastructure 38 Buy Resource Infrastructure 38		18.34 +0.160
2046	Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 38 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 38 Buy Energy Technologies 38 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 38 Buy Internal Security & Order 38		18.53 +0.193

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.885	−135.9	−4.20
No shocks	+0.296	+22.6	+0.20
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.016	−1.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.023	−1.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.018	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.018	−1.3	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.079	+4.4	+0.20
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.166	+12.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.133	+10.3	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	20.00	+5.33	+7.17	−0.25	+0.10
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	18.40	+4.90	+5.12	−0.26	+0.04
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	19.80	+4.80	+4.78	−0.47	+0.49
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.56	+4.56	+3.90	+0.50	+0.16
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+4.17	+0.30	+0.14
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.61	+4.28	+4.01	−0.06	+0.33
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.74	+4.07	+3.66	−0.05	+0.47
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.59	+0.07	+0.32
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.92	+0.05	+0.24
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	17.98	+3.98	+3.98	−0.09	+0.09
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.47	+3.80	+3.44	+0.04	+0.32
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	17.79	+3.79	+3.78	−0.09	+0.10
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	20.00	+3.75	+3.93	+0.30	+0.09
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.38	+3.63	+3.26	+0.08	+0.29
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.85	+3.60	+3.03	+0.35	+0.22
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	20.00	+3.50	+3.66	−0.24	+0.50
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.38	+3.38	+3.06	+0.07	+0.25
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	19.28	+3.28	+3.10	−0.05	+0.23
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	18.47	+3.27	+2.68	+0.32	+0.28
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	18.80	+3.20	+2.90	+0.23	+0.07
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	19.39	+3.06	+2.75	+0.07	+0.24
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.37	+3.04	+2.69	+0.30	+0.05
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.63	−0.26	+0.44
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.25	+0.61	+0.25
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	16.99	+2.99	+2.73	0.00	+0.26
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.91	+2.91	+2.00	+0.36	+0.55
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	19.42	+2.75	+2.64	+0.05	+0.06
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	20.00	+2.75	+2.97	−0.59	+0.66
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	19.62	+2.37	+1.95	+0.22	+0.21
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	16.51	+2.26	+1.45	+0.62	+0.20
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	18.34	+2.21	+1.19	+0.89	+0.13
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.17	+2.17	+1.73	+0.22	+0.22
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.13	+2.13	+1.73	+0.22	+0.19
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.69	+2.09	+1.25	+0.32	+0.52
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	19.56	+2.06	+1.64	−0.23	+0.66
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.59	+1.99	+2.01	−0.07	+0.04
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	17.91	+1.91	+1.73	−0.07	+0.25
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	17.87	+1.87	+1.36	+0.30	+0.21
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	18.22	+1.82	+1.57	−0.09	+0.33
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.28	+1.78	+1.19	+0.32	+0.28
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.70	+1.70	+1.33	+0.32	+0.05
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	18.26	+1.69	+1.66	−0.07	+0.09
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	16.31	+1.64	+1.32	0.00	+0.32
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.94	+1.61	+1.91	−0.55	+0.25
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.10	+1.60	+1.74	−0.38	+0.23
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.58	+1.58	+1.70	−0.23	+0.11
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	18.73	+1.53	+1.32	−0.06	+0.27
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	19.01	+1.51	+1.42	−0.23	+0.33
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.39	+1.39	+1.32	+0.06	+0.02
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	18.76	+1.16	+1.18	−0.06	+0.04
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	16.98	+0.98	0.00	+0.58	+0.40
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	18.03	+0.94	0.00	+0.32	+0.62
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.78	+0.78	+1.45	−0.74	+0.08
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.04	+0.71	0.00	+0.09	+0.62
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.32	+0.65	0.00	+0.62	+0.03
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	17.01	+0.61	0.00	+0.30	+0.31
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	14.62	+0.37	0.00	+0.32	+0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.56	+0.31	0.00	+0.33	−0.02
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	14.93	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.26
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.64	+0.24	0.00	+0.23	+0.02
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	17.54	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.21
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	17.71	+0.21	0.00	+0.06	+0.15
Air Power	National Security	17.00	17.20	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.20
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.57	+0.17	0.00	−0.23	+0.40
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.66	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.16
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	17.16	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.16
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.81	+0.14	0.00	−0.07	+0.22
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	17.12	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.12
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	18.05	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	16.77	+0.02	0.00	−0.06	+0.08
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.74	−0.01	0.00	−0.07	+0.07
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.65	−0.02	0.00	0.00	−0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.59	−0.08	0.00	−0.07	−0.01

Seed 3 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.