Simulation 6
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 6: median simulation of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.01 in 2046; 95 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 6
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 4 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.01 (+1.01)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 15.89 −0.108 |
| 2028 |
| 15.94 +0.050 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.03 +0.087 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.20 +0.171 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 16.26 +0.062 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.34 +0.072 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.48 +0.140 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.59 +0.117 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.71 +0.118 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.79 +0.083 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.88 +0.082 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.96 +0.080 | |
| 2039 |
| Regional war spilloverAI labour shock | 16.48 −0.477 |
| 2040 |
| 16.50 +0.023 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.53 +0.026 | |
| 2042 |
| 16.63 +0.099 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.71 +0.086 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.83 +0.114 | |
| 2045 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.84 +0.008 |
| 2046 |
| Chronic disease advance | 17.01 +0.176 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.170 | −150.3 | −6.67 |
| No shocks | +0.576 | +42.2 | +0.33 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | −0.33 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.275 | +19.6 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.280 | +20.6 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.74 | +4.24 | +5.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.22 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.73 | +4.23 | +7.23 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.08 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.04 | +3.54 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.23 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.50 | +3.50 | +6.49 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.66 | +3.46 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.16 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.35 | +3.35 | +4.39 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.53 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.15 | +3.15 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.17 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.44 | +3.11 | +3.68 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.03 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.30 | +2.97 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.10 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.74 | +2.74 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.29 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.52 | +2.52 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.24 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.93 | +2.43 | +4.38 | 0.00 | −2.28 | +0.32 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.61 | +2.36 | +3.99 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.09 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.35 | +2.35 | +2.68 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.18 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.35 | +2.35 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.90 | +2.30 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.07 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.27 | +2.27 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.32 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.19 | +2.19 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.12 | +2.12 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 17.33 | +2.00 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.98 | +1.98 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.21 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.27 | +1.94 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 16.91 | +1.91 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.59 | +1.84 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.20 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.44 | +1.77 | +2.45 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.44 | +1.77 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.46 | +1.71 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.15 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.08 | +1.58 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 3.16 | +1.49 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.47 | +1.47 | +2.72 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.70 | +1.37 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.10 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.46 | +1.26 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.20 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.39 | +1.19 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.33 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.76 | +1.05 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.29 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.53 | +1.03 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.24 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.74 | +0.94 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.22 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.69 | +0.89 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.11 | +0.86 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.10 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.33 | +0.73 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.22 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.21 | +0.71 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.09 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.38 | +0.63 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.11 | +0.61 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −1.99 | −0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.58 | +0.58 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.75 | +0.42 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.11 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.36 | +0.36 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.19 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.34 | +0.34 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.27 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 16.82 | +0.32 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.04 | −0.09 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.11 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.43 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.18 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.87 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.33 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.96 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.35 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.55 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.42 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.51 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.21 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.09 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.12 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.60 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.20 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.21 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.18 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.16 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.28 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.59 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.95 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.64 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.61 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.76 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.08 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 15.71 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.70 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.77 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.95 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.41 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.21 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.99 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 14.94 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.61 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.61 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.06 |
Seed 6 of experiment mcts-m3.m3-kor-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.