Simulation 1
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.68 in 2046; 70 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (median simulation), 4 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.68 (+0.68)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.06 +0.020 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 16.08 +0.020 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.16 +0.080 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.31 +0.151 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.41 +0.099 | |
| 2033 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 16.30 −0.112 |
| 2034 |
| 16.39 +0.090 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 16.47 +0.079 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.56 +0.092 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.65 +0.091 | |
| 2038 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.37 −0.280 |
| 2039 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.91 −0.461 |
| 2040 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 16.04 +0.135 |
| 2041 |
| 16.18 +0.138 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 16.27 +0.092 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.36 +0.083 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 16.44 +0.089 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.55 +0.103 | |
| 2046 |
| 16.68 +0.136 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.170 | −150.3 | −6.67 |
| No shocks | +0.576 | +42.2 | +0.33 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | −0.33 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.275 | +19.6 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.280 | +20.6 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +4.65 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.55 | +4.05 | +4.59 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.91 | +3.91 | +4.13 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.80 | +3.30 | +3.80 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.20 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.55 | +3.22 | +4.36 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.11 | +3.11 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.59 | +2.84 | +4.71 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.20 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.69 | +2.69 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.05 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.82 | +2.49 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −2.44 | +0.11 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 16.63 | +2.43 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.09 | +2.42 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.35 | +2.35 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.58 | +2.33 | +3.44 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.48 | +2.23 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.63 | +2.13 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.26 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.12 | +2.12 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.04 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.54 | +2.04 | +4.56 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.19 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.91 | +1.91 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.17 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.82 | +1.82 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.07 | +1.57 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.02 | +1.52 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.69 | +1.49 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.24 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.45 | +1.45 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.22 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.61 | +1.41 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.08 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.99 | +1.39 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.12 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.29 | +1.29 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.28 | +1.28 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.19 | +1.19 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.38 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.90 | +1.10 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.09 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.89 | +1.09 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.04 | +1.04 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.29 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.94 | +0.94 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.30 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.91 | +0.91 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.52 | +0.85 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.00 | +0.50 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.14 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.22 | +0.47 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 17.71 | +0.38 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.66 | +0.33 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.11 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.04 | +0.04 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.07 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.62 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.18 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.36 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.50 | −0.10 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.20 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.33 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.24 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.12 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.47 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.16 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.37 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.20 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.47 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 14.86 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.17 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.08 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.29 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.25 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.84 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.31 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.29 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.69 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.25 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.23 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.29 | −0.84 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −2.20 | +0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.46 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.87 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.09 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 15.79 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.03 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 14.81 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.68 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.07 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.28 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.28 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.14 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.40 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.40 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.04 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.14 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.14 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.18 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 14.90 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.13 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 12.86 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.05 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 13.52 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.23 | −2.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.11 |
Seed 1 of experiment mcts-m3.m3-kor-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.