Simulation 9
South Korea, tree search, 30 years, seed 9: median simulation of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.32 in 2056; 115 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 9
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 17.32 (+1.32)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.05 +0.043 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 16.06 +0.014 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 16.07 +0.014 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 16.09 +0.014 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 16.10 +0.016 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 16.11 +0.003 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 16.11 +0.003 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 16.06 −0.048 |
| 2036 |
| 16.05 −0.006 | |
| 2037 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.89 −0.170 |
| 2038 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.42 −0.467 |
| 2039 |
| 15.54 +0.125 | |
| 2040 |
| 15.65 +0.106 | |
| 2041 |
| 15.76 +0.106 | |
| 2042 |
| 15.88 +0.121 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.02 +0.146 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.14 +0.122 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.22 +0.072 | |
| 2046 |
| 16.31 +0.095 | |
| 2047 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.27 −0.039 |
| 2048 |
| 16.21 −0.058 | |
| 2049 |
| 16.19 −0.028 | |
| 2050 |
| 16.32 +0.138 | |
| 2051 |
| 16.44 +0.119 | |
| 2052 |
| 16.58 +0.134 | |
| 2053 |
| 16.68 +0.106 | |
| 2054 |
| Clean power threshold | 16.92 +0.234 |
| 2055 |
| 17.10 +0.177 | |
| 2056 |
| 17.32 +0.225 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.879 | −200.4 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +1.050 | +78.6 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | −0.33 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.457 | +33.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.234 | +16.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.397 | +29.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.36 | +4.86 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.27 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.83 | +4.33 | +5.73 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.21 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.55 | +4.05 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.13 | +3.80 | +6.62 | 0.00 | −3.02 | +0.21 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.63 | +3.43 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.18 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 19.08 | +3.41 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.70 | +3.37 | +3.99 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.02 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.23 | +3.23 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.15 | +3.15 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.10 | +3.10 | +3.75 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.47 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.03 | +3.03 | +4.77 | 0.00 | −1.92 | +0.18 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.07 | +2.82 | +4.84 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.06 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.23 | +2.73 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.14 | +2.64 | +4.81 | 0.00 | −2.59 | +0.42 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.62 | +2.62 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.38 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.80 | +2.60 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.21 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.50 | +2.50 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.17 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.79 | +2.46 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.12 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.37 | +2.37 | +3.65 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.92 | +2.32 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.29 | +2.29 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.27 | +2.27 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.05 | +2.25 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.96 | +2.21 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.12 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.65 | +2.15 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.24 | +2.04 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.42 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.03 | +2.03 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.36 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.96 | +1.96 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.20 | +1.95 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 17.27 | +1.94 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.64 | +1.84 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.44 | +1.73 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.26 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.69 | +1.69 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.38 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.32 | +1.65 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.12 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.97 | +1.64 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.18 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.38 | +1.63 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.66 | +1.33 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +0.09 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.05 | +1.30 | +2.78 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.17 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.64 | +1.14 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.19 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.57 | +1.07 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.17 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.06 | +1.06 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.90 | +0.90 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.85 | +0.85 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.40 | +0.80 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.16 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.12 | +0.79 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −2.10 | +0.05 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.29 | +0.79 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.42 | +0.75 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.14 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.34 | +0.67 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.56 | +0.56 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.11 | +0.44 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.36 | +0.23 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.89 | +0.22 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.11 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.82 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.59 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.37 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.33 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.20 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.90 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.25 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.61 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.26 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.70 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.24 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.36 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.23 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.59 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.29 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.13 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.53 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.93 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.88 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.09 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.57 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.41 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.26 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.40 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.26 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.72 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.85 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.49 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.16 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.11 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.42 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.07 |
Seed 9 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.