A poor simulation (10th percentile) · mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-30y

Simulation 8

South Korea, tree search, 30 years, seed 8: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.73 in 2056; 120 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 8

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 9 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2056.

Capability index: 16.73 (+0.73); From 16.00
Rank by index: 2; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 6; From 2
Events: 8 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	No actions	Global funding seizure	15.79 −0.211
2028	No actions	AI labour shock	15.70 −0.091
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Advanced Education 30		15.64 −0.058
2030	No actions		15.57 −0.074
2031	No actions		15.58 +0.010
2032	No actions		15.59 +0.010
2033	No actions		15.60 +0.015
2034	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 29 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 29 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 29 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 29 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 29	Hybrid coercion	15.31 −0.288
2035	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 29 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 29 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 29 Build Foundational Education 29 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 29	Cryptographic trust break	14.99 −0.322
2036	Buy Economic Output & Productivity 29 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 29 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 29 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 29 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 29		15.12 +0.124
2037	Build Economic Leverage & Dependence 29 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 29 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 29 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 29 Build Foundational Education 29		15.23 +0.115
2038	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 30 Partner Digital & Services Trade 30 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 30 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 30		15.39 +0.162
2039	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 31 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 31		15.49 +0.091
2040	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Partner Global Value Chain Position 31 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Build Advanced Education 31		15.58 +0.091
2041	Partner Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 32 Buy Artificial Intelligence 32 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 32 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 32 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 32		15.74 +0.164
2042	Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 32 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 32 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 32 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 32 Partner Digital & Services Trade 32	Global funding seizure	15.65 −0.091
2043	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 33 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Labour & Employment 33		15.77 +0.116
2044	Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 32 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 32 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 32 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 32 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 32		15.89 +0.119
2045	Partner Financial Infrastructure 32 Buy Artificial Intelligence 32 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 32 Build Early Childhood Development 32 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 32	Hybrid coercion	15.66 −0.223
2046	Build Resource Infrastructure 32 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 32 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 32 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 32 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 32		15.77 +0.108
2047	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 32 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 32 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 32 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 32 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 32	Global funding seizure	15.68 −0.091
2048	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Partner Global Value Chain Position 32 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 32		15.80 +0.117
2049	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 32 Partner Digital & Services Trade 32 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 32 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32		15.93 +0.132
2050	Build Labour & Employment 32 Build Financial Infrastructure 32 Buy Energy Infrastructure 32 Build Population Health 32 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 32		16.04 +0.108
2051	Buy Financial Infrastructure 32 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 32 Partner Space Technologies 32 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 32 Build Labour & Employment 32		16.15 +0.116
2052	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 32 Buy Resource Infrastructure 32 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 32 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 32 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 32		16.26 +0.106
2053	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 32 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 32 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 32 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 32		16.38 +0.117
2054	Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 32 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 32 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 32		16.53 +0.158
2055	Buy Space Operations 32 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 32 Buy Energy Technologies 32 Partner Space Technologies 32 Buy Energy Infrastructure 32		16.66 +0.128
2056	Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 32 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 32 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 32 Buy Artificial Intelligence 32 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 32	AI labour shock	16.73 +0.069

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046					2051					2056
Critical Technology	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	7	7	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.879	−200.4	−6.33
No shocks	+1.050	+78.6	+0.67
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.016	−1.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.021	−1.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.022	−1.5	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.018	−1.3	−0.33
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.024	−1.5	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.457	+33.9	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.234	+16.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.397	+29.4	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2056	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.58	+4.08	+6.88	−2.94	+0.15
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	19.10	+3.60	+3.95	−0.48	+0.13
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	17.86	+3.36	+5.55	−2.41	+0.22
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.37	+3.17	+4.88	−1.84	+0.13
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.15	+3.15	+6.11	−3.37	+0.41
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.07	+3.07	+3.79	−0.71	−0.01
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.30	+2.97	+5.09	−2.26	+0.13
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.83	+2.83	+4.97	−2.18	+0.04
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	18.79	+2.79	+3.00	−0.52	+0.31
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.23	+2.56	+6.91	−4.33	−0.02
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.56	+2.56	+4.34	−2.29	+0.56
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	17.40	+2.40	+3.95	−1.65	+0.10
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	18.86	+2.36	+5.00	−2.90	+0.26
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.53	+2.28	+5.33	−3.08	+0.03
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.68	+2.18	+4.68	−2.35	−0.16
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.30	+2.10	+4.40	−2.55	+0.25
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	17.07	+2.07	+4.96	−3.02	+0.12
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.53	+2.03	+4.64	−2.60	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.00	+2.00	+2.36	−0.71	+0.35
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.13	+1.88	+2.32	−0.47	+0.03
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.07	+1.74	+4.97	−3.26	+0.03
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	18.46	+1.46	+1.89	−0.72	+0.29
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	16.45	+1.45	+2.70	−1.38	+0.13
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	16.74	+1.41	+2.71	−1.38	+0.08
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.18	+1.38	+3.15	−1.78	+0.01
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	13.11	+1.36	+3.09	−1.82	+0.09
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	17.96	+1.29	+3.05	−1.88	+0.13
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.07	+1.27	+3.32	−2.32	+0.27
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.86	+1.26	+3.99	−2.81	+0.08
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	17.18	+1.18	+2.61	−1.53	+0.10
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.50	+1.17	+3.33	−2.26	+0.10
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	17.47	+1.14	+2.64	−1.51	+0.01
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.11	+1.11	+3.33	−2.28	+0.06
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.04	+1.04	+2.78	−1.89	+0.14
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	17.91	+0.91	+1.51	−0.49	−0.11
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.52	+0.85	+2.53	−1.81	+0.13
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	16.84	+0.84	+1.40	−0.50	−0.05
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.31	+0.81	+3.17	−2.26	−0.10
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.29	+0.79	+3.08	−2.35	+0.05
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	17.07	+0.74	+2.27	−1.74	+0.21
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	17.23	+0.73	+2.88	−1.89	−0.26
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	16.30	+0.55	+3.00	−2.54	+0.09
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	2.19	+0.52	+0.94	−0.40	−0.02
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	16.34	+0.14	+1.57	−1.76	+0.34
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	16.69	+0.09	+1.53	−1.75	+0.31
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.06	+0.06	+2.78	−2.85	+0.14
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	16.75	+0.04	+1.52	−1.75	+0.27
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	16.45	−0.05	+1.56	−1.76	+0.15
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.01	−0.12	+2.53	−2.64	−0.01
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.44	−0.23	+1.45	−1.65	−0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	15.35	−0.40	+1.56	−1.91	−0.06
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	16.16	−0.51	0.00	−0.76	+0.25
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	15.36	−0.97	+1.42	−2.52	+0.13
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	15.98	−1.02	+1.39	−2.49	+0.08
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	15.78	−1.22	0.00	−1.70	+0.49
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	15.08	−1.25	0.00	−1.58	+0.33
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	14.48	−1.35	+1.63	−3.18	+0.20
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	15.12	−1.38	0.00	−1.72	+0.34
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	14.62	−1.38	+1.61	−3.17	+0.19
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	15.37	−1.43	0.00	−1.71	+0.28
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	16.55	−1.45	0.00	−1.85	+0.41
Air Power	National Security	16.75	15.25	−1.50	0.00	−1.57	+0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	12.74	−1.51	0.00	−1.82	+0.31
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	13.75	−1.58	0.00	−1.61	+0.03
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	14.41	−1.59	0.00	−1.59	0.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	15.86	−1.64	0.00	−1.72	+0.08
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	16.75	−1.65	0.00	−1.67	+0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	13.94	−1.73	0.00	−1.88	+0.15
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	14.44	−1.76	0.00	−1.85	+0.10
Land Power	National Security	16.50	14.72	−1.78	0.00	−1.57	−0.21
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	13.81	−1.94	0.00	−1.73	−0.20
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	13.38	−2.62	0.00	−2.60	−0.03
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	13.64	−3.03	0.00	−3.07	+0.04

Seed 8 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.