Simulation 2
United Kingdom, greedy, 10 years, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.14 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 85 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 17.14 (+0.69)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.57 +0.085 | |
| 2029 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.49 −0.075 |
| 2030 |
| 16.48 −0.006 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.49 +0.005 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.63 +0.141 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.73 +0.104 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.87 +0.134 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.01 +0.145 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.14 +0.130 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 25 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.270 | −88.4 | −4.52 |
| No shocks | +0.707 | +51.1 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.022 | −1.6 | −0.08 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.462 | +32.4 | +1.04 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.293 | +20.8 | +0.93 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.233 | +16.4 | +0.71 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 20.00 | +5.33 | +8.11 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.99 | +4.24 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.10 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.44 | +3.44 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.27 | +3.27 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.24 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.03 | +2.70 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.12 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.57 | +2.57 | +3.66 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 18.17 | +2.50 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −1.24 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.48 | +2.48 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 17.38 | +2.13 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 19.38 | +2.13 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.10 | +2.10 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.50 | +2.00 | +2.95 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.09 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 15.96 | +1.96 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.84 | +1.59 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.58 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.58 | +1.58 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.36 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.02 | +1.52 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.40 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.29 | +1.29 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.08 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.84 | +1.24 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.21 | +1.21 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.81 | +1.21 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 16.81 | +1.21 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.19 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 15.86 | +1.19 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.17 | +1.17 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.11 | +1.11 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.60 | +1.10 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.06 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.99 | +0.99 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.05 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.24 | +0.91 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.12 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.19 | +0.62 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.25 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.08 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.12 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 17.19 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.12 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.95 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.10 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 15.05 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.09 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.09 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 16.16 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.33 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.82 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 13.81 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.09 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.18 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.76 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 16.43 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 16.75 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.87 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.74 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 15.98 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.06 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.71 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.21 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.02 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.38 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.70 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.94 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.05 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.18 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 17.92 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.32 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.31 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 16.03 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.15 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.97 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.07 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.28 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.16 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 16.87 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.22 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 12.96 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.13 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 16.44 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 16.63 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.08 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.74 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 16.60 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.01 |
Seed 2 of experiment stress-preview.e5-gbr-s01-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.