Simulation 3
United Kingdom, greedy, 10 years, seed 3: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 16.63 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 85 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 16.63 (+0.18)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 3
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.57 +0.085 | |
| 2029 |
| Breadbasket failureTrade bloc rupture | 16.32 −0.251 |
| 2030 |
| 16.31 −0.009 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.31 +0.004 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.45 +0.140 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.57 +0.117 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.70 +0.130 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.85 +0.156 | |
| 2036 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.63 −0.221 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 25 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.270 | −88.4 | −4.52 |
| No shocks | +0.707 | +51.1 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.022 | −1.6 | −0.08 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.462 | +32.4 | +1.04 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.293 | +20.8 | +0.93 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.233 | +16.4 | +0.71 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.91 | +5.24 | +8.11 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 19.91 | +4.91 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.87 | +4.12 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.93 | +3.43 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.07 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.68 | +3.35 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −2.43 | +0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.97 | +2.97 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.06 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.63 | +2.63 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.24 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.79 | +2.19 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.07 | +2.07 | +3.81 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.18 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.89 | +1.89 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.83 | +1.83 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.10 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.98 | +1.73 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 17.39 | +1.72 | +3.77 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.22 | +1.72 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.16 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 16.68 | +1.43 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.10 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.35 | +1.35 | +3.39 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.77 | +1.27 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.49 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.04 | +1.04 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 16.93 | +0.93 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.18 | +0.85 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.14 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.24 | +0.64 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −1.07 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.57 | +0.57 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.57 | +0.57 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.07 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 15.21 | +0.54 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −1.11 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.01 | +0.51 | +1.79 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 17.71 | +0.46 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.42 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 16.90 | +0.33 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.22 | +0.22 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 15.89 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 16.12 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.77 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 15.68 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 15.01 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.19 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.41 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.90 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.08 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.67 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.41 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.09 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 13.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.06 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 14.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.34 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 15.63 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 15.97 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.71 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 15.88 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.04 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 16.88 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.60 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.66 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 16.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 16.35 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 13.80 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 17.35 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.09 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 15.47 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.17 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 12.56 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 14.25 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.23 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.15 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.45 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.18 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 14.92 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 16.30 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 16.65 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 15.87 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.07 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 15.86 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.53 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 15.80 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 13.40 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 16.32 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 14.76 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.96 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.06 |
Seed 3 of experiment stress-preview.e5-gbr-s01-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.