For government
Government: ministries, agencies, central banks, legislators.
The ranked ten by relevance
Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.
| Relevance | Scenario | Family | Exposure | L2y | Sys | Nat | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | Regional war spillover S03 | BGeopolitical and security | Alliance commitments, nationals in the theatre, import route concentration, reserve days and munitions stocks | 3Possible | 4Severe | 4Severe | 3 |
| 5/5 | Hybrid coercion S04 | BGeopolitical and security | Protection of subsea and energy assets, speed of attribution, authority over operators in a crisis and legal powers below the threshold of war | 3Possible | 2Moderate | 4Severe | 6 |
| 5/5 | Legitimacy rupture S05 | BGeopolitical and security | Electoral administration, courts, security-force chain of command, revenue collection and the credibility of official information. | 2Unlikely | 1Limited | 4Severe | 8 |
| 5/5 | Cryptographic trust break S09 | DTechnology and infrastructure | Archived diplomatic, defence and intelligence traffic; national identity and signature schemes; tax, registry and court systems; the legal standing of documents signed with broken algorithms. | 1Remote | 3Significant | 4Severe | 10 |
| 4/5 | Trade bloc rupture S01 | AEconomic and trade | Dependence on inputs, markets and standards from both blocs; legal powers to allocate scarce inputs; capacity of customs and licensing administrations. | 3Possible | 4Severe | 4Severe | 1 |
| 4/5 | Breadbasket failure S06 | CEnergy, climate and resources | Reserve policy by grain and location, the reach of transfer systems, foreign exchange for imports and water-sharing agreements. | 3Possible | 3Significant | 4Severe | 4 |
| 4/5 | Severe pandemic S10 | EHealth | Staffed hospital capacity, access to countermeasures, continuity of essential services and the credibility of official communication. | 2Unlikely | 4Severe | 4Severe | 7 |
| 4/5 | Core disaster S07 | CEnergy, climate and resources | Warning and evacuation systems, continuity-of-government sites, flood defences and building-code enforcement, finance arranged before the event and the capacity of city authorities. | 2Unlikely | 1Limited | 4Severe | 9 |
| 3/5 | Global funding seizure S02 | AEconomic and trade | Refinancing needs, contingent liabilities to banks, reserve adequacy and the capacity to keep paying salaries and benefits. | 3Possible | 4Severe | 4Severe | 2 |
| 3/5 | AI labour shock S08 | DTechnology and infrastructure | Receipts from income tax and social contributions, benefit and retraining systems, the public sector's own administrative workforce and the regulation of automated work in licensed professions. | 3Possible | 3Significant | 4Severe | 5 |
Actions and what to watch
Drawn from each scenario's government block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.
Actions
- Write fuel allocation plans for a 90-day closure followed by six months of partial recovery
- Exercise evacuation, reception of displaced people and reserve release as concurrent tasks
- Agree escort, basing and munitions-sharing arrangements with partners before a crisis
Watch
- Force deployments and reserve call-ups in the theatre
- Daily transits and maritime security incident reports
- Emergency stock days and interceptor inventories
Actions
- Assign one minister authority over intelligence, operators and public communication for hybrid incidents
- Require operators to exercise manual restoration without remote control every year
- Agree in advance with allies the evidence standard and the responses that follow attribution
Watch
- Incident counts by vector
- Time from incident to public attribution
- Intrusions found in operators' control systems
Actions
- Agree before the vote how results are verified, how complaints are heard and by what date.
- Set lawful rules for policing protest and for the limits and expiry of emergency powers.
- Plan payroll, revenue and service continuity for a period without an agreed head of government.
Watch
- Resignations of, and threats against, election officials and judges
- Statements by police and military commanders on whose orders they accept
- Revenue remitted by provincial tax and customs offices
Actions
- Complete a cryptographic inventory of critical systems and set the order in which credentials would be revoked
- Deploy hybrid post-quantum key exchange on government networks and re-encrypt long-lived secrets ahead of national deadlines
- Prepare validating legislation and manual fallback procedures for identity, signing and cross-border payments
Watch
- Demonstrated logical qubit counts and published resource estimates
- Share of government systems reported as migrated against national deadlines
- Advisories on large-scale collection of encrypted traffic
Actions
- Map import dependence by product and supplier country for critical inputs
- Hold stocks sized to the time needed to requalify alternative suppliers
- Legislate in advance for the allocation of scarce inputs to essential users
Watch
- Export licence approval rates for controlled inputs
- Listings of domestic firms and banks under either bloc's restrictions
- Divergence between the blocs in product certification requirements
Actions
- Hold physical reserves of the staples people eat, stored near consumers, with published release rules.
- Link cash and food transfers to local prices so that support rises without a new decision.
- Agree import contracts and water-sharing rules with suppliers and neighbours before a shortage.
Watch
- Stocks-to-use ratios of the major exporters
- Export restrictions announced by other governments
- Reservoir levels and irrigation allocations
Actions
- Plan surge on the staff available, not on bed counts, and exercise treatment allocation rules before they are needed
- Secure countermeasure supply through regional manufacturing, advance purchase agreements and stocks of oxygen and protective equipment
- Publish data and state what is unknown from the first week, with one accountable source of public health guidance
Watch
- WHO Disease Outbreak News and declarations under the International Health Regulations
- Occupancy of staffed beds and absence among health workers
- Export restrictions on medical goods and vaccine inputs
Actions
- Test evacuation of the core at full scale and publish the compliance rate
- Arrange contingent credit, catastrophe bonds and reserve funds sized to a loss of 8 per cent of GDP
- Move operations centres, registries and backup sites outside the mapped hazard zone
Watch
- Condition surveys of embankments, dams and drainage
- Insured share of residential and commercial property in the core
- Seasonal forecasts and seismic hazard updates
Actions
- Test the public balance sheet against bank support, unemployment spending and refinancing falling due together at spreads 500 basis points higher
- Set limits on liquidity support by amount and duration in advance, and complete resolution plans that place losses on shareholders and creditors first
- Lengthen debt maturities, hold liquid reserves and agree swap or precautionary credit lines before they are needed
Watch
- Gross financing needs due within 12 months
- Bank holdings of domestic government debt
- Share of uninsured deposits and the speed of outflows
Actions
- Model revenue by tax line on a 10 per cent displacement over three years with output rising
- Fund traineeships and wage insurance that keep entry routes open in exposed occupations
- Set the capacity of retraining and employment services against the displacement assumed, not against a cyclical downturn
Watch
- Monthly receipts from income tax and social contributions against forecast
- Graduate and trainee intakes at the largest employers in exposed occupations
- Benefit claims from qualified workers in mid-career