Stakeholder view

For technology

Technology: technology companies, digital infrastructure operators, CTOs and CISOs.

The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
4/5	Trade bloc rupture S01	AEconomic and trade	Controlled chips, tools, materials and cloud services; products certified under one bloc's standards.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	1
4/5	Regional war spillover S03	BGeopolitical and security	Subsea cables, satellite navigation, regional data centres and component shipments routed through the theatre	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	3
4/5	Breadbasket failure S06	CEnergy, climate and resources	Crop forecasting, irrigation control, cold chains and the payment systems that carry transfers; water and power for data centres in drought regions.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	4
4/5	AI labour shock S08	DTechnology and infrastructure	Model owners and early adopters gain revenue and market share. They also face liability for agent errors, regulation of deployment and proposals to tax automated work.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	5
4/5	Hybrid coercion S04	BGeopolitical and security	Grid and telecommunications control systems, subsea cables, data centres and services that depend on satellite positioning and timing	3Possible	2Moderate	4Severe	6
4/5	Severe pandemic S10	EHealth	Operation of digital infrastructure at 15 per cent absence, demand for remote work and learning, exchange of health data and the spread of false health claims on platforms.	2Unlikely	4Severe	4Severe	7
4/5	Cryptographic trust break S09	DTechnology and infrastructure	Root and code-signing keys, certificate services, cloud key management, hardware security modules and embedded devices that cannot be updated in the field.	1Remote	3Significant	4Severe	10
3/5	Global funding seizure S02	AEconomic and trade	Dependence on equity, venture and private credit funding for data centres and research; operation of payment and settlement systems.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	2
3/5	Legitimacy rupture S05	BGeopolitical and security	Platforms carrying fabricated evidence, operators of election and results systems and telecommunications operators subject to restriction orders.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	8
3/5	Core disaster S07	CEnergy, climate and resources	Data centres, exchanges, base stations and cable landing points sited in the core, the delivery of alerts and the duration of backup power.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	9

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's technology block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Critical trade divides into rival blocs: Actions
Qualify a second supplier in a different jurisdiction for each controlled input
Design product lines that can be certified under either set of standards
Hold component stocks above the lead time for requalification
Watch
Scope of export controls on chips, tools and computing services
Lead times and spot prices for magnets and basic semiconductors
Data localisation and cloud access rules
A regional war closes a globally important sea route: Actions
Map cable routes, landing stations and suppliers that depend on the theatre
Secure backup power fuel and alternative routing for critical services
Prepare for navigation interference and state-linked cyber operations against port and energy systems
Watch
Satellite navigation interference reports
Cable faults and repair-ship availability
Diesel and component lead times
Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis: Actions
Supply governments with yield, soil moisture and stock estimates early enough to act on.
Keep payment and identity platforms available for emergency transfers at national scale.
Plan for restricted water and power at facilities in drought-affected basins.
Watch
Satellite crop condition and soil moisture indices
Hydropower output and grid notices in affected regions
Government requests for emergency transfer capacity
An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement: Actions
Record agent error rates and human oversight by workflow before removing roles
Keep a supply of trained junior staff for the supervisory work that agents require
Prepare for deployment rules and reporting duties in regulated professions
Watch
Agent reliability on tasks lasting days and the cost per completed task
Liability rulings on errors made by automated systems
Legislative proposals on taxing or restricting automated work
Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout: Actions
Separate control networks from corporate networks and test restoration from offline backups
Hold 72 hours of backup power at core telecommunications sites
Diversify cable routes and keep an alternative to satellite timing
Watch
Advisories on state access to control systems
Cable faults and repair vessel availability
Positioning interference reports
A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity: Actions
Test continuity of network and data centre operations at 15 per cent staff absence
Make surveillance, laboratory and hospital data systems interoperable before an outbreak
Agree with health authorities how verified guidance is carried and how false health claims are handled
Watch
Time taken to share genomic sequences on public databases
Network load and outage reports during restrictions
Circulation of false claims about vaccines and treatments
A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust: Actions
Build systems so that algorithms can be replaced without redesign, and test the replacement
Move software signing and update channels to post-quantum or hash-based signatures first
Identify devices that need physical replacement and secure supply of validated modules
Watch
Post-quantum share of encrypted web traffic
Issuance of post-quantum certificates by publicly trusted authorities
Validation queue for post-quantum cryptographic modules
A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets: Actions
Extend funding maturities and reduce reliance on a single lender or fund
Hold operating cash at more than one institution and within insured or collateralised arrangements
Test payment, clearing and settlement systems for peak volumes during a run
Watch
Redemption terms of private credit funds
Valuations of data-centre leases and loans
Capital spending guidance from the largest technology companies
A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government: Actions
Establish provenance checks and rapid verification channels with the electoral body before the vote.
Secure results transmission and publish polling-station counts in a form that can be audited.
Define the legal process required before complying with a shutdown or data restriction order.
Watch
Reach of synthetic media against reach of corrections
Coordinated inauthentic accounts amplifying either claimant
Shutdown and throttling orders and their legal basis
A major disaster disables the national economic core: Actions
Hold recoverable copies of registries and payment systems in a second region
Extend backup power at base stations and exchanges to at least 72 hours
Test cell-broadcast alerts against the full population of the core
Watch
Hazard maps set against the location of critical sites
Results of backup power and fuel resupply tests
Recovery time achieved in failover exercises