Stakeholder view

For public

Public: households, civil society, local government, media.

The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
5/5	Breadbasket failure S06	CEnergy, climate and resources	Food prices and availability, most acutely for poor urban households and for small farmers in drought regions.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	4
5/5	AI labour shock S08	DTechnology and infrastructure	Employment and earnings in administrative and professional occupations, the value of degrees that led to them and the first jobs through which young people enter skilled work.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	5
5/5	Severe pandemic S10	EHealth	Health, access to ordinary care, income, schooling and care for dependants. Exposure is highest for older people, people with chronic illness and households without savings or connectivity.	2Unlikely	4Severe	4Severe	7
4/5	Trade bloc rupture S01	AEconomic and trade	Employment in export manufacturing; prices of vehicles, electronics and appliances; availability of some medicines.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	1
4/5	Legitimacy rupture S05	BGeopolitical and security	Personal safety, the reliability of information and access to pay, health care and schooling in contested areas.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	8
4/5	Core disaster S07	CEnergy, climate and resources	Households and small firms in the hazard zone, above all those without insurance, savings, bank accounts or identity documents.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	9
3/5	Global funding seizure S02	AEconomic and trade	Employment, mortgages, pensions and deposits; in countries that lose market access, public salaries, fuel and medicines.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	2
3/5	Regional war spillover S03	BGeopolitical and security	Fuel prices and availability, household energy bills, relatives in the region and reserve service	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	3
3/5	Hybrid coercion S04	BGeopolitical and security	Loss of power, communications, payments and water for 72 hours, with false information about cause and responsibility	3Possible	2Moderate	4Severe	6
3/5	Cryptographic trust break S09	DTechnology and infrastructure	Digital identity, online banking and signing; health, tax and messaging records collected in earlier years; reliance on official statements that can no longer be verified digitally.	1Remote	3Significant	4Severe	10

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's public block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis: Actions
Households: know how the national ration or transfer scheme registers people and where it distributes.
Local government: map stores, mills and distribution points and plan for orderly, fair queuing.
Media and civil society: report stock and distribution figures accurately to limit hoarding.
Watch
Retail prices of bread, rice and cooking oil
Subsidy, ration and transfer announcements
Child malnutrition screening results
An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement: Actions
Check which tasks in an occupation are already assigned to AI agents before choosing a course or career
Use retraining entitlements early, while employed
Ask employers and professional bodies how new entrants will be trained
Watch
Entry-level vacancies in the chosen occupation
Graduate employment and earnings by degree subject
Changes to benefit and retraining entitlements
A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity: Actions
Keep a household plan for illness, isolation and the care of dependants
Follow official health guidance and check claims against published data
Local government and civil society should identify in advance the people who will need food, medicines and learning support delivered
Watch
Official guidance and pressure on local hospitals
School closure and reopening decisions
Vaccine eligibility and delivery schedules
Critical trade divides into rival blocs: Actions
Local government identifies employers that depend on inputs from the opposing bloc
Health services plan substitutes for medicines with concentrated ingredient supply
Media and civil society report shortages and allocation decisions accurately
Watch
Short-time working and redundancies in export sectors
Consumer prices for durable goods
Medicine shortage notices
A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government: Actions
Rely on published polling-station counts and accredited observer statements, not on unverified footage.
Local authorities keep clinics, schools and water services operating under either claimant.
Civil society and media document intimidation and the use of emergency powers.
Watch
Official results channels and observer statements
Curfews, assembly restrictions and data shutdowns
Late payment of public salaries and shortages at clinics
A major disaster disables the national economic core: Actions
Know the evacuation route and the conditions under which to leave
Keep water, medicines and copies of documents for 72 hours
Check what the household insurance policy covers and excludes
Watch
Official alerts and evacuation orders
Local hazard maps and the state of defence works
Changes in the price and availability of home insurance
A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets: Actions
Households should know the deposit insurance limit and which accounts it covers
Local governments should hold operating cash to cover payroll through delayed transfers
Media and civil society should report who bears losses and on what terms
Watch
Unemployment claims
Mortgage rates and arrears
Late payment of public salaries and benefits
A regional war closes a globally important sea route: Actions
Follow official travel advice and register with consular services when in the region
Keep household preparedness in line with national guidance
Rely on official allocation notices and not on unverified reports
Watch
Travel advisories
Pump prices and rationing announcements
Reserve call-up notices
Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout: Actions
Keep water, food, medicines, a battery radio and cash for 72 hours
Know the official broadcast channel that works without mobile networks
Check claims about the cause against official advisories before sharing them
Watch
Official incident advisories
Published rationing rotas
Local authority guidance for vulnerable residents
A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust: Actions
Keep paper or offline copies of essential identity, property and financial records
Use the in-person and assisted channels that authorities designate while credentials are reissued
Treat leaked or signed documents as unverified until the issuing body confirms them
Watch
Notices that identity cards, banking devices or applications must be replaced
Temporary limits on remote signing and cross-border payments
Official channels for verifying documents and public statements