Stakeholder view

For investors

Investors: asset owners, asset managers, insurers, lenders, rating agencies.

The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
5/5	Trade bloc rupture S01	AEconomic and trade	Earnings of manufacturers with supply chains that cross the blocs; currencies and sovereign spreads of trade-dependent economies; assets subject to forced divestment.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	1
5/5	Global funding seizure S02	AEconomic and trade	Leveraged positions; illiquid property and private credit holdings; bonds of sovereigns with large refinancing needs.	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	2
5/5	Regional war spillover S03	BGeopolitical and security	Shipping, insurance, energy, airlines, defence producers and the sovereign debt of energy importers	3Possible	4Severe	4Severe	3
5/5	Breadbasket failure S06	CEnergy, climate and resources	Sovereign debt of food importers, agricultural commodities, fertiliser producers, food retailers, crop insurers and utilities dependent on hydropower.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	4
5/5	AI labour shock S08	DTechnology and infrastructure	Labour-intensive business services, outsourcing firms, private higher education, household credit held by displaced professionals and sovereigns that depend on labour taxation.	3Possible	3Significant	4Severe	5
5/5	Severe pandemic S10	EHealth	Sovereign debt of nations with weak fiscal buffers, travel and hospitality, commercial property, life and health insurance and supply chains for medical goods.	2Unlikely	4Severe	4Severe	7
5/5	Core disaster S07	CEnergy, climate and resources	Property insurers, reinsurers, sovereign and municipal debt, mortgage books, utilities and firms with a single site in the core.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	9
4/5	Legitimacy rupture S05	BGeopolitical and security	Sovereign debt, currency, domestic banks holding government paper and firms dependent on permits and public contracts.	2Unlikely	1Limited	4Severe	8
4/5	Cryptographic trust break S09	DTechnology and infrastructure	Payment, settlement and custody operators; banks with large legacy estates; issuers whose value rests on confidential data; insurers with cyber and professional liability books.	1Remote	3Significant	4Severe	10
2/5	Hybrid coercion S04	BGeopolitical and security	Utilities, telecommunications operators, insurers and industrial assets in the exposed cluster	3Possible	2Moderate	4Severe	6

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's investors block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Critical trade divides into rival blocs: Actions
Test portfolios against a 10 per cent fall in trade volume and a doubling of critical input prices
Identify holdings that rely on a single jurisdiction for a critical input
Review exposure to forced divestment under investment screening
Watch
Tariff and export-control announcements
Inventory cover reported by vehicle and electronics manufacturers
Currencies and sovereign spreads of trade-dependent middle powers
A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets: Actions
Apply the scenario path to sovereign, bank and property holdings together and not one portfolio at a time
Review liquidity terms against the speed at which collateral calls and redemptions can arrive
Assess sovereign exposures by refinancing need and creditor composition as well as by rating
Watch
High-yield and emerging-market sovereign spreads
Use of central bank liquidity facilities and swap lines
Redemption suspensions in property and credit funds
A regional war closes a globally important sea route: Actions
Stress portfolios on doubled oil, fourfold gas and tripled war-risk premiums over nine months
Review war exclusions and accumulation across marine, aviation and political risk lines
Assess sovereign exposure to importers with low reserves and high fuel subsidy costs
Watch
War-risk premiums and changes to listed areas
Tanker and LNG freight rates
Sovereign spreads of energy importers
Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis: Actions
Test portfolios against staple prices doubled for 18 months and a 15 per cent import shortfall.
Review sovereign exposures by food import bill, reserve cover and subsidy cost.
Check crop insurance and reinsurance accumulations across the two failing regions.
Watch
Export restriction announcements
Reserve cover of food-importing sovereigns
Fertiliser and natural gas prices
An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement: Actions
Test portfolios on a 10 per cent employment displacement with output rising and labour income falling
Review sovereign exposures where income tax and social contributions provide most revenue
Assess household credit books by borrower occupation
Watch
Revenue per employee and headcount guidance at business services firms
Arrears on mortgages and consumer credit among professional households
Fiscal forecasts revised for lower payroll growth
A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity: Actions
Run portfolios against a 12-month pandemic with 15 per cent peak absence and no vaccine at scale for nine months
Assess sovereign exposure by fiscal headroom and reserve cover, not by pre-event health rankings
Check portfolio companies for dependence on single-source pharmaceutical inputs and for tested absence plans
Watch
Sovereign spreads and requests for IMF emergency financing
Vaccine trial results and manufacturing capacity announcements
Mobility and workplace absence data
A major disaster disables the national economic core: Actions
Screen assets and suppliers for location in the core hazard zone
Stress sovereign and municipal credit for an uninsured loss of 4 to 5 per cent of GDP
Reflect the possible withdrawal of insurance cover in property and mortgage valuations
Watch
Reinsurance renewal prices and terms
Insurer exits and the growth of public pools by district
Sovereign use of contingent credit and catastrophe bonds
A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government: Actions
Include a contested transfer of power in sovereign and country risk models around the electoral calendar.
Test contracts and guarantees against a period in which the lawful signatory is disputed.
Review exposure to domestic banks that become the residual buyer of government bills.
Watch
Sovereign spreads and currency moves in the 30 days around a vote
Auction cancellations and the shift to short-term bills
Recognition decisions by multilateral lenders and major partners
A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust: Actions
Ask portfolio companies for a cryptographic inventory and a dated migration plan
Test liquidity and operations against 90 days of restricted cross-border settlement
Review cyber policy wordings for accumulation from a single cryptographic cause
Watch
Supervisory statements on quantum readiness in financial infrastructure
Migration disclosures by systemically important payment and settlement operators
Exclusions for cryptographic failure in cyber insurance renewals
Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout: Actions
Test portfolios against 72 hours without power and 30 days of rationing
Review sabotage and war exclusions in infrastructure and business interruption cover
Assess an operator's restoration plan before financing it
Watch
War and sabotage risk listings
Insurance exclusions for state-backed acts
Deferred foreign investment in exposed regions