Simulation 100
Estonia, greedy, 20 years, seed 100: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.78 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 100
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 59 (median simulation), 28 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.78 (+0.29)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.57 +0.084 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.66 +0.085 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.75 +0.095 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.84 +0.091 | |
| 2031 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.60 −0.245 |
| 2032 |
| 11.71 +0.114 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.85 +0.137 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.01 +0.160 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shockChronic disease advance | 11.99 −0.020 |
| 2036 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.72 −0.266 |
| 2037 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.52 −0.205 |
| 2038 |
| 11.49 −0.030 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.42 −0.071 | |
| 2040 |
| 11.53 +0.117 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.63 +0.092 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.68 +0.055 | |
| 2043 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.47 −0.206 |
| 2044 |
| 11.57 +0.090 | |
| 2045 |
| 11.66 +0.096 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.78 +0.119 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.349 | −172.9 | −1.05 |
| No shocks | +1.326 | +96.3 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | −0.05 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.021 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.025 | −1.8 | −0.05 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.593 | +42.9 | +0.37 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.489 | +35.3 | +0.07 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.438 | +31.1 | +0.09 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 12.11 | +9.61 | +12.70 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.73 | +8.06 | +9.65 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 14.84 | +6.51 | +6.07 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +2.63 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 19.02 | +6.02 | +6.55 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.41 | +5.91 | +7.76 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.20 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 10.60 | +5.80 | +7.86 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 9.93 | +5.33 | +6.53 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.59 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 10.37 | +5.23 | +7.82 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 14.26 | +4.26 | +7.82 | 0.00 | −3.39 | −0.17 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.25 | +3.75 | +6.53 | 0.00 | −3.17 | +0.39 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.97 | +3.47 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.19 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.79 | +3.46 | +7.00 | 0.00 | −3.62 | +0.08 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.09 | +3.09 | +5.25 | 0.00 | −2.61 | +0.46 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 13.73 | +2.93 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 8.45 | +2.78 | +3.62 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.40 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 9.89 | +2.49 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.07 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.63 | +2.30 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.61 | +1.94 | +5.46 | 0.00 | −3.21 | −0.31 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 5.51 | +1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +2.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 9.60 | +1.20 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.04 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.68 | +1.01 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −3.16 | +1.37 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 15.41 | +0.91 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 6.85 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +1.33 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.09 | +0.84 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.76 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.89 | +0.22 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.34 | +0.01 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.53 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.30 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.84 | −0.16 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.24 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 11.75 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 5.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.21 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.20 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.69 | −0.31 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −3.11 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 8.93 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 9.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.59 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.24 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 9.20 | −0.60 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 12.65 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.26 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 14.11 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.71 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.19 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.54 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.19 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.82 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.39 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.09 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.59 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.15 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 7.97 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.37 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.26 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.01 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.22 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.49 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.72 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.04 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 13.29 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 13.62 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.14 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.90 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 10.79 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.21 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.66 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.44 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.08 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 10.17 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.09 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 10.39 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.98 | −1.52 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −2.61 | −0.10 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 12.47 | −1.53 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −2.99 | −0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 3.92 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.84 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 11.36 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.51 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.01 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | +0.18 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.48 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.55 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.36 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.44 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 12.23 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.15 | +0.63 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.04 | −2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.32 | +0.61 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.42 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.10 | −2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 10.63 | −3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.77 | −0.27 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 10.10 | −3.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.57 | −0.33 |
Seed 100 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.