Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-bwa

Simulation 21

Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.60 at the 1996 position, 9.27 in 2026; 164 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.27 (−0.32); From 9.60
Rank by index: 55; From 51
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Foundational Education 14 Build Health System Capability 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3	Severe pandemic	8.99 −0.607
1998	Build Foundational Education 14 Build Health System Capability 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3		9.00 +0.012
1999	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3		9.02 +0.017
2000	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.05 +0.034
2001	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.10 +0.045
2002	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 11		9.14 +0.047
2003	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.19 +0.050
2004	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.24 +0.043
2005	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.27 +0.036
2006	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.30 +0.032
2007	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13		9.33 +0.026
2008	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5	Global funding seizure	9.17 −0.165
2009	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5		9.20 +0.033
2010	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5		9.23 +0.029
2011	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.26 +0.031
2012	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.29 +0.031
2013	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.32 +0.036
2014	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.36 +0.039
2015	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5	Breadbasket failure	9.25 −0.111
2016	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5	Market access opening	9.34 +0.085
2017	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.41 +0.077
2018	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.49 +0.077
2019	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		9.52 +0.024
2020	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5	Severe pandemic	9.18 −0.339
2021	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.20 +0.021
2022	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.21 +0.018
2023	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.23 +0.016
2024	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.24 +0.014
2025	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.26 +0.012
2026	Build Health System Capability 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Economic Output & Productivity 5		9.27 +0.015

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	10	11	11	10	10	8	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4
Information & Influence	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Financial Strength	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10
Production & Innovation	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	10	9	9	9	9	8	8
Trade & Investment	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−1.075	−82.9
No shocks	+1.570	+106.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.8
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.015	−1.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.770	+52.7
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.406	+27.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.252	+16.6

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.92	14.69	+5.77	+6.13	−0.56	+0.19
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.71	14.08	+4.37	+5.21	−0.76	−0.09
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	12.50	+4.30	+4.93	−0.52	−0.11
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	12.15	+3.67	+4.87	−1.52	+0.33
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	14.60	+3.60	+4.33	−0.43	−0.29
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	15.81	+3.41	+4.85	−1.50	+0.06
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	13.29	+3.19	+3.76	−0.83	+0.26
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	14.15	+2.80	+4.59	−1.64	−0.15
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	10.35	+2.16	+2.28	−0.65	+0.54
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	11.40	+1.92	+3.92	−1.82	−0.18
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	13.61	+1.85	+2.56	−0.67	−0.05
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	12.55	+1.75	+3.21	−1.45	−0.02
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	14.02	+1.72	+3.22	−1.18	−0.32
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	13.89	+1.09	+1.77	−0.64	−0.03
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	10.27	+1.07	+2.60	−1.46	−0.07
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.06	16.04	+0.98	+1.44	−0.61	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.20	15.41	+0.21	+1.45	−1.21	−0.03
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	11.77	+0.14	+1.70	−1.78	+0.23
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	11.90	0.00	0.00	−0.97	+0.97
Air Power	National Security	7.98	7.93	−0.05	+0.71	−0.65	−0.11
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	1.30	−0.09	0.00	−0.14	+0.04
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.44	1.28	−0.16	0.00	−0.14	−0.02
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	1.46	−0.16	0.00	−0.19	+0.03
Land Power	National Security	8.80	8.59	−0.21	+0.67	−0.70	−0.17
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	2.26	−0.24	0.00	−0.21	−0.03
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.26	8.98	−0.28	0.00	−0.82	+0.55
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	4.67	−0.30	0.00	−0.27	−0.03
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.43	2.10	−0.33	0.00	−0.29	−0.03
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	3.27	−0.35	0.00	−0.30	−0.06
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	7.74	−0.37	0.00	−0.68	+0.31
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	9.02	−0.38	0.00	−0.81	+0.42
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.00	2.60	−0.40	0.00	−0.38	−0.01
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.49	−0.41	0.00	−0.37	−0.05
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	4.10	−0.41	0.00	−0.37	−0.04
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.28	2.85	−0.43	0.00	−0.43	0.00
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.81	−0.48	0.00	−0.49	+0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	14.24	−0.55	0.00	−0.65	+0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	7.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.63	+0.03
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	3.98	−0.62	0.00	−0.62	0.00
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	6.30	−0.64	0.00	−0.54	−0.09
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.73	13.04	−0.69	0.00	−0.67	−0.02
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	4.47	−0.71	0.00	−0.70	−0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.35	−0.79	0.00	−0.69	−0.09
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.28	−0.81	0.00	−0.77	−0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.92	10.07	−0.85	0.00	−0.71	−0.15
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.66	−0.85	0.00	−1.50	+0.65
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.71	12.85	−0.86	0.00	−0.77	−0.09
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.21	6.34	−0.87	0.00	−1.05	+0.18
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	8.37	−0.95	0.00	−0.70	−0.26
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.23	−1.11	0.00	−1.11	0.00
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.05	6.90	−1.15	0.00	−1.17	+0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.43	−1.18	0.00	−1.10	−0.08
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.63	12.40	−1.23	0.00	−0.81	−0.43
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.07	−1.35	0.00	−1.34	−0.01
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.08	6.71	−1.37	0.00	−1.41	+0.04
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.50	7.12	−1.38	0.00	−1.21	−0.17
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.75	−1.48	0.00	−1.58	+0.09
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.43	8.78	−1.65	0.00	−1.46	−0.19
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	9.19	−1.66	0.00	−1.49	−0.17
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	11.99	−1.74	0.00	−1.59	−0.16
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	9.88	−1.75	0.00	−1.68	−0.07
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	8.13	−1.80	0.00	−1.72	−0.07
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.50	−1.87	0.00	−1.65	−0.22
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.56	11.64	−1.92	0.00	−1.90	−0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.26	11.28	−1.98	0.00	−1.92	−0.07
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.51	10.51	−2.00	0.00	−1.94	−0.06
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.89	−2.03	0.00	−1.98	−0.06
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.09	13.01	−2.08	+1.13	−3.23	+0.02
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.79	−2.23	0.00	−2.50	+0.27
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	11.71	−2.30	0.00	−2.07	−0.22
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.46	7.01	−2.45	0.00	−2.45	0.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.15	8.38	−2.77	0.00	−3.24	+0.47

Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-bwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.