Simulation 76
Kenya, greedy, 30 years, seed 76: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 8.59 in 2056; 143 actions over 30 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 76
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 77 (median simulation), 49 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 8.59 (+1.42)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 63
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.029 | |
| 2028 |
| 7.24 +0.033 | |
| 2029 |
| 7.28 +0.038 | |
| 2030 |
| 7.31 +0.036 | |
| 2031 |
| 7.36 +0.049 | |
| 2032 |
| 7.42 +0.060 | |
| 2033 |
| 7.49 +0.065 | |
| 2034 |
| 7.56 +0.073 | |
| 2035 |
| 7.62 +0.056 | |
| 2036 |
| 7.67 +0.050 | |
| 2037 |
| 7.73 +0.064 | |
| 2038 |
| Hybrid coercion | 7.64 −0.091 |
| 2039 |
| 7.69 +0.052 | |
| 2040 |
| 7.76 +0.066 | |
| 2041 |
| 7.84 +0.081 | |
| 2042 |
| 7.89 +0.054 | |
| 2043 |
| 7.95 +0.060 | |
| 2044 |
| 8.03 +0.075 | |
| 2045 |
| 8.08 +0.050 | |
| 2046 |
| 8.14 +0.059 | |
| 2047 |
| 8.20 +0.064 | |
| 2048 |
| 8.25 +0.049 | |
| 2049 |
| 8.30 +0.051 | |
| 2050 |
| 8.35 +0.051 | |
| 2051 |
| 8.40 +0.051 | |
| 2052 |
| 8.44 +0.040 | |
| 2053 |
| 8.48 +0.033 | |
| 2054 |
| 8.53 +0.050 | |
| 2055 |
| 8.56 +0.029 | |
| 2056 |
| 8.59 +0.036 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.678 | −121.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.033 | +145.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.839 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.760 | +53.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.685 | +48.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 8.70 | +7.70 | +7.82 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.05 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 11.45 | +7.45 | +7.68 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.84 | +6.51 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +2.90 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 10.25 | +5.75 | +5.87 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.18 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 12.74 | +5.74 | +5.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 7.31 | +5.71 | +5.39 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.45 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 8.03 | +5.60 | +5.63 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 12.63 | +5.13 | +4.94 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.32 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 6.43 | +5.10 | +5.22 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 12.07 | +5.07 | +4.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 13.76 | +4.76 | +5.23 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 10.92 | +4.59 | +4.71 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 14.10 | +4.35 | +4.41 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 7.41 | +4.16 | +3.80 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.49 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 7.51 | +3.91 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 11.26 | +3.76 | +3.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 10.00 | +3.33 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.84 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 10.66 | +3.16 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.29 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 10.70 | +3.03 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.08 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 9.88 | +2.55 | +2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 7.40 | +2.20 | +2.11 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.22 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 10.66 | +1.91 | +1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 9.36 | +1.69 | +1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 10.34 | +1.67 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 8.16 | +1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +1.39 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 10.17 | +0.67 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 6.55 | +0.55 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 11.52 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.76 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 6.91 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.53 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 2.71 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.66 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 4.99 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.87 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 2.60 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.55 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 8.16 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.28 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 8.48 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 6.89 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.26 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.92 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.63 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.32 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 10.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.06 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 7.06 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.32 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 8.79 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 9.28 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.25 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 8.12 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.26 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 9.51 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.15 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 8.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 9.39 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 9.23 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 5.94 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.17 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 7.69 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 1.19 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 7.53 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 7.17 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.19 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 9.68 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.14 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 8.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 7.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.12 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 9.53 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.08 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 10.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 9.30 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 6.11 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 10.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 8.02 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 7.40 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 6.95 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 9.98 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 7.32 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 2.94 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | 0.00 |
Seed 76 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.