Simulation 77
Kenya, greedy, 30 years, seed 77: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 7.53 in 2056; 144 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 77
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 49 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 76 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 7.53 (+0.35)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 73
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.029 | |
| 2028 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 7.15 −0.060 |
| 2029 |
| 7.07 −0.074 | |
| 2030 |
| 7.00 −0.074 | |
| 2031 |
| 7.04 +0.047 | |
| 2032 |
| 7.10 +0.057 | |
| 2033 |
| 7.16 +0.062 | |
| 2034 |
| 7.22 +0.057 | |
| 2035 |
| 7.29 +0.066 | |
| 2036 |
| 7.34 +0.058 | |
| 2037 |
| 7.40 +0.058 | |
| 2038 |
| 7.47 +0.067 | |
| 2039 |
| 7.53 +0.062 | |
| 2040 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.31 −0.222 |
| 2041 |
| 7.36 +0.049 | |
| 2042 |
| 7.42 +0.060 | |
| 2043 |
| Chronic disease advance | 7.49 +0.069 |
| 2044 |
| 7.57 +0.087 | |
| 2045 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 7.68 +0.103 |
| 2046 |
| 7.79 +0.113 | |
| 2047 |
| 7.91 +0.123 | |
| 2048 |
| 8.03 +0.116 | |
| 2049 |
| Regional war spillover | 7.65 −0.377 |
| 2050 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 7.75 +0.095 |
| 2051 |
| 7.84 +0.097 | |
| 2052 |
| 7.95 +0.106 | |
| 2053 |
| 8.04 +0.089 | |
| 2054 |
| Breadbasket failure | 7.46 −0.581 |
| 2055 |
| 7.49 +0.031 | |
| 2056 |
| 7.53 +0.038 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.678 | −121.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.033 | +145.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.839 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.760 | +53.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.685 | +48.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 7.80 | +6.80 | +8.05 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 10.15 | +6.15 | +6.89 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.23 | +5.90 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +2.15 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 12.84 | +5.84 | +5.47 | 0.00 | +0.40 | −0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 9.27 | +4.77 | +6.13 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.12 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 6.61 | +4.18 | +5.24 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 5.66 | +4.06 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.24 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 11.53 | +4.03 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.06 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 11.45 | +3.95 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.31 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 10.88 | +3.88 | +4.02 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 12.86 | +3.86 | +5.13 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.11 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 5.03 | +3.70 | +4.36 | 0.00 | −0.67 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 13.23 | +3.48 | +5.50 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 6.35 | +3.10 | +3.56 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.25 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 10.19 | +2.52 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −2.16 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 8.82 | +2.49 | +4.78 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.15 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 5.81 | +2.21 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.10 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 9.39 | +2.06 | +2.20 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.22 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.28 | +1.78 | +3.50 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 8.07 | +1.40 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −2.76 | +0.74 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 6.24 | +1.04 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.29 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 8.52 | +0.85 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.24 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 9.23 | +0.48 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −3.24 | +0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 8.71 | +0.04 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.02 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.99 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.89 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.99 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 4.53 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.98 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 8.08 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 8.48 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 10.60 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 9.26 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.58 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.54 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.78 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.14 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.98 | −0.52 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −3.02 | −0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 9.23 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.07 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.16 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.42 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 3.97 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.24 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 1.63 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.47 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 6.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 7.37 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 8.52 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.11 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.02 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 9.55 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.08 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 7.76 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 5.74 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.55 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 5.15 | −0.85 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 6.81 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 7.01 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.00 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 6.67 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.14 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.74 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 7.22 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 8.42 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 6.50 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 6.13 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 6.82 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 9.80 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.20 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 4.78 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.20 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.09 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.52 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 7.63 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 5.25 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.16 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 7.96 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.06 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 9.43 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | +0.46 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 6.17 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 4.65 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 7.69 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 5.50 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | +0.28 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 1.72 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 7.32 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 5.88 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.07 | −2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.88 | −0.05 |
Seed 77 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.