Simulation 49
Kenya, greedy, 30 years, seed 49: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.82 in 2056; 125 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 49
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 77 (median simulation), 76 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 5.82 (−1.36)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 102
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.029 | |
| 2028 |
| 7.24 +0.033 | |
| 2029 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.87 −0.366 |
| 2030 |
| 6.89 +0.017 | |
| 2031 |
| Global funding seizureAI labour shock | 6.37 −0.517 |
| 2032 | No actions | 6.27 −0.100 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 6.15 −0.124 | |
| 2034 |
| Regional war spillover | 5.28 −0.867 |
| 2035 |
| 5.27 −0.017 | |
| 2036 |
| 5.24 −0.025 | |
| 2037 |
| 5.23 −0.011 | |
| 2038 |
| 5.23 −0.002 | |
| 2039 |
| 5.24 +0.010 | |
| 2040 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 5.29 +0.055 |
| 2041 |
| 5.36 +0.065 | |
| 2042 |
| 5.44 +0.085 | |
| 2043 |
| AI labour shock | 5.40 −0.047 |
| 2044 |
| 5.35 −0.050 | |
| 2045 |
| 5.28 −0.070 | |
| 2046 |
| 5.32 +0.048 | |
| 2047 |
| 5.37 +0.042 | |
| 2048 |
| 5.41 +0.043 | |
| 2049 |
| 5.47 +0.063 | |
| 2050 |
| 5.52 +0.046 | |
| 2051 |
| 5.57 +0.050 | |
| 2052 |
| 5.62 +0.050 | |
| 2053 |
| 5.67 +0.053 | |
| 2054 |
| 5.72 +0.051 | |
| 2055 |
| 5.77 +0.046 | |
| 2056 |
| 5.82 +0.048 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.678 | −121.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.033 | +145.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.839 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.760 | +53.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.685 | +48.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 8.26 | +4.26 | +6.22 | −0.01 | −1.90 | −0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 5.17 | +4.17 | +5.17 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.05 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 9.31 | +3.98 | +6.04 | −0.01 | −2.62 | +0.57 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 10.27 | +3.27 | +4.17 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.22 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 8.92 | +1.92 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.27 | +1.77 | +4.33 | −0.01 | −2.56 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 10.67 | +1.67 | +3.61 | −0.01 | −1.70 | −0.23 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 4.01 | +1.58 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 6.05 | +1.55 | +3.64 | −0.01 | −2.01 | −0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 8.77 | +1.27 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.32 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 10.74 | +0.99 | +4.24 | −0.01 | −3.05 | −0.19 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 7.02 | +0.69 | +4.33 | −0.01 | −3.22 | −0.42 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 7.66 | −0.01 | +4.64 | −0.01 | −4.41 | −0.23 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 1.44 | −0.16 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.11 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 6.81 | −0.69 | +3.31 | −0.01 | −3.69 | −0.30 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 3.95 | −0.72 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.05 | +0.34 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 5.98 | −0.85 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.01 | +0.17 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 2.37 | −0.88 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.15 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 2.65 | −0.95 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.11 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 6.83 | −1.17 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.00 | −0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 7.54 | −1.21 | +4.86 | 0.00 | −5.77 | −0.29 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.51 | −1.24 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.05 | −0.18 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.07 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 6.01 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.28 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.00 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.67 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 7.12 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.36 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 0.94 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.30 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 5.85 | −1.40 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.01 | −0.38 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 7.35 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.39 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 7.59 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.11 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 8.25 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.14 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 6.18 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.15 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 9.45 | −1.55 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.66 | +0.12 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.42 | −1.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.38 | −0.19 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 5.09 | −1.58 | +2.78 | −0.01 | −4.28 | −0.08 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.41 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 8.69 | −1.60 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.51 | −0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.39 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.28 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 6.60 | −1.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.36 | −0.28 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 6.68 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.28 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.54 | −1.66 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.49 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.28 | −1.72 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.58 | −0.14 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 7.76 | −1.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.69 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 5.88 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.22 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 6.23 | −1.86 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.55 | −0.30 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.10 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.26 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 2.73 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.32 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 6.70 | −1.97 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −3.08 | −0.23 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 5.60 | −2.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.73 | −0.26 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 5.85 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.31 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 4.12 | −2.21 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.05 | −0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 1.27 | −2.23 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.13 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 0.00 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.18 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 6.89 | −2.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.20 | −0.15 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 8.45 | −2.55 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.98 | −0.56 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 3.42 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.08 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 5.09 | −2.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.53 | −0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 3.85 | −2.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.60 | −0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 4.48 | −2.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.46 | −0.31 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 5.22 | −2.78 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.56 | −0.22 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 6.96 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.30 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 6.06 | −2.94 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.52 | −0.41 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 4.80 | −2.95 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.56 | −0.38 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 3.03 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | −0.05 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 6.32 | −3.18 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −4.13 | −0.38 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 5.51 | −3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.75 | −0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 5.21 | −4.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.85 | −0.18 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 5.94 | −4.06 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.81 | −0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.40 | −4.10 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.96 | −0.13 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 3.88 | −4.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.93 | −0.18 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 2.36 | −4.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.45 | +0.07 |
Seed 49 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.