Simulation 29
Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 29: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.96 at the 1996 position, 4.30 in 2026; 170 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 29
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 4.30 (−1.66)
- From 5.96
- Rank by index
- 135
- From 97
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 5.96 +0.003 | |
| 1998 |
| Regional war spillover | 5.66 −0.302 |
| 1999 |
| 5.66 +0.003 | |
| 2000 |
| 5.67 +0.002 | |
| 2001 |
| 5.67 +0.003 | |
| 2002 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.28 −0.390 |
| 2003 |
| 5.28 −0.005 | |
| 2004 |
| 5.27 −0.006 | |
| 2005 |
| 5.27 −0.002 | |
| 2006 |
| 5.27 −0.001 | |
| 2007 |
| 5.27 0.000 | |
| 2008 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.04 −0.225 |
| 2009 |
| 5.04 +0.003 | |
| 2010 |
| 5.05 +0.005 | |
| 2011 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.79 −0.258 |
| 2012 |
| 4.80 +0.008 | |
| 2013 |
| 4.81 +0.008 | |
| 2014 |
| 4.82 +0.011 | |
| 2015 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.54 −0.280 |
| 2016 |
| 4.55 +0.016 | |
| 2017 |
| 4.57 +0.013 | |
| 2018 |
| 4.58 +0.011 | |
| 2019 |
| 4.59 +0.009 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicRegional war spillover | 4.16 −0.429 |
| 2021 |
| 4.16 +0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Clean power threshold | 4.18 +0.014 |
| 2023 |
| Debt service reset | 4.20 +0.027 |
| 2024 |
| 4.23 +0.031 | |
| 2025 |
| 4.26 +0.031 | |
| 2026 |
| 4.30 +0.036 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Information & Influence | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 |
| Financial Strength | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Production & Innovation | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.441 | −34.1 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.309 | +163.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.001 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.391 | +27.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.369 | +26.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.282 | +20.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 5.89 | 6.38 | +0.49 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 6.27 | 6.73 | +0.46 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.19 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.06 | 0.86 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.96 | 6.72 | −0.24 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −2.95 | −0.53 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.32 | 1.04 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.10 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 1.26 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.06 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.30 | 0.99 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.05 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.83 | 4.49 | −0.34 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −2.64 | −0.23 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.25 | 1.81 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.47 | 2.02 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.55 | 2.02 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.22 | 4.60 | −0.62 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.26 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.27 | 7.62 | −0.65 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.23 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.05 | 2.38 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.15 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 6.03 | 5.34 | −0.69 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −2.06 | −0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.88 | 6.14 | −0.74 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 1.89 | 1.11 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 5.82 | 4.87 | −0.95 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.15 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 7.03 | 6.06 | −0.97 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −1.44 | −0.39 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 7.25 | −1.01 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.32 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.02 | 6.01 | −1.01 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.19 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 4.93 | 3.88 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.16 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.29 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.16 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.50 | 2.39 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.22 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 6.82 | 5.68 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.39 | 5.23 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.93 | 4.76 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.14 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.01 | 6.81 | −1.20 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.37 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 7.50 | 6.24 | −1.26 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.49 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 6.46 | 5.20 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.13 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 6.40 | 5.13 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.00 | 2.66 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.26 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.60 | 5.22 | −1.38 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.36 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.62 | −1.38 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 5.99 | 4.55 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.33 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 6.59 | 5.13 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.23 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.42 | 2.95 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.28 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.74 | 6.18 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.28 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.02 | 7.41 | −1.61 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −2.93 | −0.34 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 4.95 | 3.23 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.14 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.11 | 4.39 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.19 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.39 | 2.66 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.11 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 4.93 | 3.20 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.22 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.82 | 2.97 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.16 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 5.82 | 3.97 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.10 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 5.33 | 3.39 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.32 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 6.22 | 4.25 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 5.44 | 3.46 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.19 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 4.99 | 3.01 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 6.04 | 4.05 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.22 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 5.65 | 3.65 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.27 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.68 | 4.60 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.21 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 6.80 | 4.72 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.21 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.51 | 5.41 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 6.70 | 4.55 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.14 | 3.76 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.17 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.72 | 7.24 | −2.48 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −1.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 7.57 | 5.00 | −2.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 8.29 | 5.69 | −2.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.36 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 6.43 | 3.81 | −2.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.34 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 7.54 | 4.89 | −2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.24 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 7.36 | 4.70 | −2.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.43 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 7.00 | 4.29 | −2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.53 | −0.18 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.27 | 5.46 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.52 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 5.55 | 2.72 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.53 | −0.30 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 4.14 | −2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.93 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.10 | 5.22 | −2.88 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −3.60 | −0.37 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 6.94 | 4.06 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.47 | −0.41 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 7.01 | 3.75 | −3.26 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −4.60 | −0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 6.69 | 3.32 | −3.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.16 | −0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 7.38 | 4.00 | −3.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.20 | −0.17 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 7.39 | 3.35 | −4.04 | +0.48 | 0.00 | −3.96 | −0.55 |
Seed 29 of experiment cycle-003.e4-eth. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.