Simulation 18
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.52 in 2046; 97 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 46 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.52 (+1.51)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.08 +0.074 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.21 +0.139 |
| 2029 |
| 16.40 +0.185 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.60 +0.196 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.46 −0.134 |
| 2032 |
| 16.67 +0.209 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.87 +0.195 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.00 +0.133 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 16.86 −0.135 |
| 2036 |
| 16.99 +0.129 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 16.81 −0.183 |
| 2038 |
| 16.97 +0.156 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.15 +0.181 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.92 −0.223 |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.93 +0.007 |
| 2042 |
| 17.10 +0.169 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.21 +0.106 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.33 +0.125 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.43 +0.098 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.52 +0.087 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.361 | −163.3 | −5.40 |
| No shocks | +0.117 | +9.1 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.076 | +5.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.025 | +2.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.002 | +1.8 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +6.58 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.20 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.03 | +4.53 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.27 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.59 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.24 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.48 | +4.48 | +4.89 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.30 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.53 | +4.03 | +5.61 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.38 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.86 | +3.86 | +5.29 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.10 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.85 | +3.85 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.25 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.53 | +3.53 | +5.38 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.26 | +3.51 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.11 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.09 | +3.34 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.24 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.48 | +3.28 | +4.23 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.16 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.99 | +3.24 | +4.93 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.17 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.53 | +3.20 | +3.80 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.19 | +3.19 | +3.75 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.51 | +3.18 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.25 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.40 | +3.15 | +4.58 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.10 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.32 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.99 | +2.99 | +4.84 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.28 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.29 | +2.96 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.54 | +2.94 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.39 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.50 | +2.90 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −1.83 | +0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.89 | +2.89 | +3.45 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.88 | +2.88 | +3.95 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.30 | +2.80 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.30 | +2.80 | +3.97 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.16 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.83 | +2.58 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.08 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.00 | +2.33 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −2.70 | +0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.97 | +2.17 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.62 | +2.12 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.16 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.00 | +2.00 | +2.90 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.40 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.16 | +1.96 | +2.90 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.35 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.44 | +1.94 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.41 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.87 | +1.87 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.29 | +1.79 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.11 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.81 | +1.61 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.45 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.18 | +1.47 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.37 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.37 | +1.37 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.38 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.81 | +1.31 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.31 | +1.31 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.21 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.11 | +1.31 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.27 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.29 | +1.29 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.29 | +1.29 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.46 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.59 | +1.26 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.21 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.82 | +1.15 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.80 | +1.13 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.22 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.27 | +0.94 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.38 | +0.88 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.97 | +0.72 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.39 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.82 | +0.15 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.13 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.85 | +0.02 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −2.54 | +0.26 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.59 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.84 | −0.16 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.92 | −0.21 | +1.90 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.12 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.70 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.72 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.23 | −0.44 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.03 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.38 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.36 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.17 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.63 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.42 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.21 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.63 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.15 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.06 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 14.96 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.41 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.11 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.20 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.28 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.13 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.28 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 14.77 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 14.78 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.04 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.27 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.18 | −2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.03 |
Seed 18 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.