Simulation 3
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.22 in 2046; 86 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 7 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.22 (+2.22)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2029 |
| AI labour shock | 15.90 −0.101 |
| 2030 |
| 15.81 −0.087 | |
| 2031 |
| 15.76 −0.051 | |
| 2032 |
| Market access opening | 15.97 +0.208 |
| 2033 |
| 16.15 +0.176 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.36 +0.213 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.50 +0.137 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.67 +0.174 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.79 +0.119 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.87 +0.079 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.95 +0.084 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.03 +0.079 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.16 +0.134 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.38 +0.212 |
| 2043 |
| 17.58 +0.205 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.81 +0.232 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.07 +0.259 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.22 +0.149 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.359 | −163.2 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +0.578 | +42.8 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.226 | +16.5 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.279 | +20.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.185 | +14.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 20.00 | +5.50 | +5.42 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.34 | +4.84 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.29 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.55 | +4.55 | +3.88 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.19 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.54 | +4.54 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.41 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +6.07 | 0.00 | +0.67 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.69 | +4.49 | +4.16 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.20 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.76 | +4.43 | +3.89 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.00 | +4.25 | +2.96 | 0.00 | +0.99 | +0.30 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.40 | +4.07 | +3.48 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.42 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.59 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.37 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.98 | +3.65 | +3.04 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.19 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.82 | +3.57 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.83 | +3.50 | +2.49 | 0.00 | +1.00 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.98 | +3.48 | +2.96 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.18 | +3.43 | +3.06 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.10 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.27 | +3.27 | +3.44 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.13 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.15 | +3.15 | +2.57 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.07 | +3.07 | +2.82 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.78 | +3.03 | +2.81 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.71 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.22 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.27 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.50 | +3.00 | +2.57 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.16 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.88 | +2.88 | +2.54 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.08 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.87 | +2.87 | +2.30 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.39 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.51 | +2.84 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.12 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.84 | +2.84 | +1.92 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.48 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.75 | +2.75 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.25 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.23 | +2.73 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.44 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.40 | +2.73 | +2.46 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.85 | +2.60 | +2.23 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.84 | +2.34 | +1.45 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.13 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.41 | +2.21 | +1.00 | 0.00 | +1.00 | +0.20 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.09 | +2.09 | +1.68 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.66 | +2.06 | +1.84 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.77 | +1.97 | +1.61 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.56 | +1.96 | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.65 | +0.25 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.45 | +1.95 | +1.39 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.40 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.13 | +1.93 | +1.53 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.25 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.21 | +1.88 | +1.49 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.20 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.38 | +1.88 | +1.30 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.57 | +1.86 | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.38 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.52 | +1.85 | +1.41 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.17 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.11 | +1.78 | +1.11 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.15 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.54 | +1.74 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.35 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.95 | +1.45 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.47 | +1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.25 | +0.09 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.20 | +1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.77 | +0.42 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.84 | +1.17 | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.24 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.53 | +1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.61 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.60 | +1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.34 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.02 | +1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.50 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.01 | +1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.72 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.77 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.64 | +0.13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.52 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.20 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.93 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.54 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.14 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.83 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.13 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.30 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.07 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.21 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.88 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.22 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.03 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.22 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.68 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.21 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.56 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.92 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.96 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.42 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.73 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.56 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.05 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.03 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.66 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Seed 3 of experiment mcts-m5.m5-kor-mcts-marginal-return. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.