Simulation 7
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 7: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.88 in 2046; 85 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 7
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.88 (+0.88)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | Water-efficient food leap | 16.03 +0.029 |
| 2029 | No actions | 16.06 +0.029 | |
| 2030 |
| Debt service reset | 16.13 +0.072 |
| 2031 |
| 16.24 +0.106 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.39 +0.150 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.55 +0.157 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.67 +0.122 | |
| 2035 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.68 +0.011 |
| 2036 |
| 16.84 +0.161 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.92 +0.080 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.00 +0.086 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.11 +0.103 | |
| 2040 |
| AI labour shock | 17.13 +0.021 |
| 2041 |
| Core disaster | 16.85 −0.276 |
| 2042 |
| 16.87 +0.021 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.96 +0.088 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.06 +0.094 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.16 +0.107 | |
| 2046 |
| Regional war spilloverBreadbasket failure | 16.88 −0.286 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.359 | −163.2 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +0.578 | +42.8 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.226 | +16.5 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.279 | +20.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.185 | +14.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.59 | +4.09 | +7.20 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.13 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.25 | +3.75 | +4.49 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.23 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.85 | +3.52 | +3.81 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.11 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.56 | +3.36 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.22 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.80 | +3.30 | +3.80 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.30 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.21 | +3.21 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.14 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.16 | +3.16 | +4.36 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.34 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.98 | +2.98 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.39 | +2.39 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.23 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.37 | +2.37 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.36 | +2.36 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.22 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.33 | +2.33 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.26 | +2.26 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.21 | +2.21 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.31 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.21 | +2.21 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.47 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.85 | +2.18 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.05 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.41 | +2.08 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.19 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.01 | +2.01 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.34 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.48 | +1.98 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.15 | +1.90 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.06 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.19 | +1.86 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.46 | +1.71 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 17.86 | +1.61 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 17.88 | +1.55 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.15 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.71 | +1.51 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.43 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.92 | +1.42 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.91 | +1.31 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.28 | +1.28 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.66 | +1.16 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.22 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.95 | +1.15 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.81 | +1.10 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.21 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.28 | +1.08 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.03 | +1.03 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.40 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 17.52 | +1.02 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −2.45 | +0.24 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.97 | +0.97 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.22 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.76 | +0.96 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.37 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.34 | +0.74 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.19 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.37 | +0.70 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.06 | +0.56 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.70 | +0.37 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.12 | +0.37 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.36 | +0.36 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.24 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.98 | +0.31 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.09 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.22 | +0.22 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.12 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 17.39 | +0.06 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.21 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.43 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.41 | −0.09 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −2.38 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 15.64 | −0.11 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.21 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.15 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.31 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.19 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.72 | −0.41 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.59 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.21 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.40 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.19 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.89 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.18 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.93 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.32 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.62 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.20 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.91 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.04 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.02 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.11 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.76 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.43 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.92 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.28 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.39 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.85 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.17 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.03 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.37 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.20 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.30 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 14.92 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.48 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.12 |
Seed 7 of experiment mcts-m5.m5-kor-mcts-marginal-return. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.