Simulation 10
Brazil, greedy, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.79 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 89 (median simulation), 99 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.79 (+1.10)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.53 −0.156 |
| 2028 |
| 11.61 +0.076 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.68 +0.073 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.49 −0.195 |
| 2031 |
| 11.63 +0.142 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.77 +0.140 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.90 +0.127 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.04 +0.141 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 12.04 0.000 |
| 2036 |
| Middle East settlement | 12.07 +0.034 |
| 2037 |
| 12.12 +0.048 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.24 +0.121 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.40 +0.160 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.50 +0.096 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.62 +0.121 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.76 +0.140 | |
| 2043 |
| AI labour shock | 12.76 −0.004 |
| 2044 |
| 12.72 −0.034 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.69 −0.037 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.79 +0.106 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.403 | −172.3 | −1.25 |
| No shocks | +0.758 | +54.2 | −0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.019 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.394 | +27.6 | +0.58 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.288 | +20.3 | +0.29 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.238 | +16.8 | +0.10 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 18.11 | +7.61 | +8.25 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.27 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 19.86 | +7.36 | +8.40 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.22 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 16.47 | +7.14 | +7.93 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +1.42 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 16.42 | +7.02 | +8.37 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.11 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 17.25 | +6.58 | +7.49 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.39 | +6.06 | +7.38 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 17.44 | +5.94 | +6.40 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.80 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.72 | +5.72 | +7.51 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 17.15 | +5.48 | +5.73 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.43 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 15.40 | +5.40 | +6.43 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.46 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 16.62 | +4.29 | +5.65 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 15.23 | +3.98 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 12.12 | +3.87 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.44 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 17.97 | +3.72 | +5.11 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 15.97 | +3.47 | +5.16 | 0.00 | −2.04 | +0.35 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 15.44 | +3.44 | +4.20 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.44 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.11 | +3.44 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.32 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.91 | +3.24 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.04 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 15.05 | +3.05 | +4.76 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 15.86 | +2.86 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.49 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.88 | +2.55 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.60 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.10 | +2.30 | +3.45 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 11.96 | +2.16 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.35 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 13.33 | +1.33 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.37 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.35 | +0.92 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.41 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.63 | +0.83 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.23 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 11.96 | +0.63 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −2.61 | +0.13 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 14.69 | +0.44 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.46 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.64 | +0.31 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.09 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.58 | +0.15 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.11 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.07 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.56 | −0.11 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.48 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.27 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.09 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.70 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.52 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.57 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.14 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.38 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.45 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.26 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.80 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.46 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.06 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.36 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.82 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.87 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.28 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.92 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.29 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.74 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.09 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.85 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 11.91 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.39 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.97 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 10.55 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.43 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.37 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.36 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.21 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.30 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.08 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.12 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.23 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.78 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.14 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.62 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.34 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.67 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.32 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.66 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.13 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 12.63 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 12.20 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.09 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.08 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.15 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.29 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 12.77 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.10 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 11.94 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.24 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 9.56 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.50 |
Seed 10 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.