Likelihood, two years: 3Possible; to end-2028
Likelihood, ten years: 4Likely; to end-2036
Systemic impact: 4Major; global
National impact: 4Major; typical highly exposed nation
Onset pace: Months
Duration (acute phase): 5 years
Warning time: Months
Scope: Global
Recovery horizon: Structural
Capability load: Hard 2/3Soft 1/3Economic 3/3; domains loaded High
Concurrency: Standalone; triggers 5 · triggered by 5
Confidence · movement: medium; new

Rated at Standard Severe. Event reach: global event. Source of scores: model-panel-v0.5. Upside scenario: impact levels measure the scale of change, not loss.

Capture test: results by nation

03Narrative

Dateline: June 2035

The result that changed investment decisions was published in September 2030. Independent engineers had audited eleven commercial plants in five climate zones over two full years. Each combined solar or wind generation, battery storage and one firm clean source: enhanced geothermal at seven sites, small modular fission at two and long-duration storage at two. All eleven had met a contracted reliability standard of 99.9 per cent of hours at a delivered cost 40 per cent below a new gas or coal plant in the same market. The designs were standard and the audit data were public.

Lenders acted on the finding within months. By early 2032 standardised projects were reaching financial close in 18 months or less from first application, and their cost of debt had fallen below that of new thermal plant. Developers ordered the same module, cell and drilling packages in volume. Orders for transformers, cable and rigs exceeded supply within a year, and prices for lithium, copper and graphite rose sharply before new capacity arrived.

The gain was not distributed by resource. It was distributed by the ability to connect. Nations that had approved transmission corridors, staffed their permitting offices and reformed wholesale markets to pay for firm capacity brought projects into service in three years. Their industrial electricity costs were 30 per cent lower by 2035, and smelters, chemical plants, electrolysers and data centres signed 15-year supply contracts there. Nations with connection queues of five years or more saw the same projects financed and then left waiting. Several curtailed large volumes of midday output while still paying for imported gas in the evening.

Importers of oil and gas recorded lower fuel bills from 2033 as heat, transport and industry electrified faster than planned. Households saw the difference later than industry, because network charges rose to pay for the new lines.

The loss arrived through expectations before it arrived through volumes. Long-term demand forecasts for oil, gas and coal were revised down in 2031 and again in 2032. Reserves were written down, new field developments were cancelled and the borrowing costs of hydrocarbon-dependent states rose while their export receipts were still close to normal. Producers with low costs and large sovereign funds maintained output and used the interval to diversify. Producers without buffers cut capital spending first, then subsidies and public pay. Three had requested external financing programmes by 2034. Utilities holding recently built gas and coal plant sought compensation for early closure, and coal regions lost employment faster than retraining schemes could absorb.

By June 2035 the threshold itself was no longer in dispute. The remaining questions were administrative: how quickly a state could approve a line, train electricians and drillers, secure materials and replace a revenue base.

The dateline is illustrative, not a forecast. The narrative is hypothetical; the historical anchors below are real events.

04Summary

Independent commercial trials establish that a replicable combination of renewables, storage and firm clean generation supplies reliable electricity at 40 per cent below the cost of new fossil plant across several climate zones. Standardised projects reach financial close within 18 months. Early adopters cut industrial electricity costs by 30 per cent within five years, which accelerates electrification and changes where energy-intensive industry and data centres invest. The gain goes to nations that connect projects, secure materials and reform power markets quickly. Hydrocarbon-dependent revenues weaken as expected long-term demand and asset values are revised down, ahead of the fall in volumes.

Who gains: Energy importers with grid capacity: much of Europe, Japan, Korea, India and China
Industrial locations that can connect new plant within three years
Energy-intensive industry and data centres, through lower and more stable power costs
Makers of modules, cells, drilling equipment, transformers and cable
Producers of copper, lithium, graphite and other transition minerals
Nations with low electricity access, where the cost of reliable supply falls
Who loses: Hydrocarbon-dependent states without fiscal buffers or sovereign funds
Owners of recently built gas and coal plant and of undeveloped reserves
Coal, oil and gas regions and the workers employed there
Nations with long connection queues, which lose industry to faster neighbours
States whose external leverage rested on supplying fuel

A shock most would count as progress. It is not upside for everyone: each record names who gains and who loses. Impact levels measure the scale of change, in either direction, and loads mark the capabilities a nation needs in order to capture the gain or absorb the loss.

05Historical anchors

Event	Date	What happened	Calibrates
Solar cost decline	2010–2020	The cost of electricity from utility-scale solar fell by more than 80 per cent in a decade as manufacturing scaled and designs standardised.	The size of cost reduction that a standard, mass-produced energy technology can deliver in ten years, and the basis for the ten-year likelihood band.
Battery storage cost record	2025	The benchmark cost of a four-hour battery project fell 27 per cent in a year to US$78 per MWh, the lowest since tracking began in 2009.	Storage is the component that turns variable output into dependable supply. The rate of decline supports a combined system priced below new fossil plant.
Enhanced geothermal at Cape Station	2026	The first 100 MW phase of the largest enhanced geothermal project was scheduled to deliver power to the grid.	A firm clean source at commercial scale exists but has no long operating record. The scenario's trials supply the record that lenders require.
Pakistan solar import surge	2024	Pakistan imported about 17 GW of solar modules in 2024, according to Ember's analysis of Chinese export data, as households and firms responded to high grid tariffs. Grid electricity sales fell and the finances of the distribution companies weakened.	Onset in months: adoption can outrun planning once a price threshold is crossed, and the incumbent system's revenue weakens before its assets are retired.
US grid interconnection queue	End of 2023	About 2,600 GW of generation and storage capacity was waiting in US interconnection queues at the end of 2023, more than twice the installed fleet, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Projects completed in 2023 had typically taken about five years from request to operation.	Connection and permitting, not cost, set the pace of delivery. A nation with a five-year queue captures little of the gain inside the five-year test period.
Oil price collapse	1986	Oil prices fell by more than half within months. Exporter revenues fell with them, which strained Soviet finances and forced spending cuts across producer states.	The upper bound of the loss for hydrocarbon-dependent states. In this scenario the revision is to expected demand, so the loss arrives more slowly than in 1986.

06Parameters

Shown at their preset values. Parameters are not adjustable in this release and nothing on this page is computed from them. Custom settings run (Phase B) but are labelled 'non-standard run' and excluded from comparisons.

Common variables at Standard Severe · read-only

1. Severity: major
severe (Standard Severe)
extreme
2. Duration (acute phase): 30 days
90 days
1 year
3 years
5 years (Standard Severe)
3. Onset pace: days
weeks
months (Standard Severe)
years
4. Warning time: none
days
months (Standard Severe)
5. Scope: national
regional
global (Standard Severe)
6. Origin: natural
accidental (Standard Severe)
adversarial (great power / neighbour / non-state)
negotiated
Standard Severe: accidental (technological)
7. External support: full
partial (Standard Severe)
none
8. Concurrency: standalone (Standard Severe)
plus one named scenario
plus two
9. Policy response assumed: none (pure exposure)
current plans executed (Standard Severe)
best practice
10. Recovery horizon: months
years
structural (Standard Severe)

Scenario-specific parameters · read-only

Parameter	Default	Range or options	Note
Cost of firm clean supply relative to new fossil plant	40 per cent lower	25 to 55	Delivered cost of the combined system at the stated reliability, compared with a new gas or coal plant in the same market.
Reliability standard met in the trials	99.9 per cent of hours	99 to 99.95	The threshold is defined by cost and reliability together. A discount without the reliability standard does not meet it.
Climate zones in which the result is replicated	5	3 to 8	Sets how many nations can adopt the standard design without local redesign.
Time from application to financial close for a standard project	18 months	12 to 36	—
Fall in industrial electricity cost in early adopters within five years	30 per cent	15 to 45	Smaller than the generation discount because network charges rise to pay for new transmission.
Grid connection lead time in an adopting nation	3 years	2 to 7	The binding constraint under current plans. Above five years, little of the gain arrives inside the test period.
Downward revision to expected hydrocarbon demand ten years ahead	20 per cent	10 to 35	Drives the write-down of reserves and the repricing of exporter sovereign debt before volumes fall.

07Transmission channels

1
Independent trials verify that standard combined plants deliver reliable power at 40 per cent below the cost of new fossil plant in several climate zones.
2
Lenders treat the design as proven. Standardised projects reach financial close within 18 months and their cost of capital falls.
3
Orders exceed the supply of transformers, cable, rigs and critical minerals. Equipment and materials prices rise and delivery times lengthen.
4
Grid connection, permitting and power market rules determine which nations turn financed projects into delivered power.
5
Industrial electricity costs fall 30 per cent in early adopters. Heat, transport and industry electrify faster and energy-intensive investment relocates.
6
Expected long-term demand for oil, gas and coal is revised down. Reserves and fossil plant are written down before volumes fall.
7
Hydrocarbon-dependent states face dearer borrowing and lower expected revenue. Public spending, subsidies and currency pegs come under strain.
8
Fossil regions lose employment and utilities claim compensation, while importers gain a lasting improvement in their terms of trade.

08Capability loading

High: capability band shifts expected under current plans. Medium: band shifts under 'none' policy response only. Low: strain without band shift. Loads are judgement-based until the Atlas connects. Domains link to the Atlas.

Domain	Load	Channel
Hard
Defence and security	Low	Fuel chokepoints lose some leverage; fiscal strain in exporter states raises instability risk
Strategic infrastructure	High	Transmission, storage, interconnection and connection lead times decide who captures the gain
Critical technology	High	Manufacture and deployment of modules, cells, drilling systems, reactors and grid equipment
Soft
Government effectiveness	High	Permitting speed, power market reform, revenue diversification and delivery of transition programmes
Human capital	Medium	Shortage of electricians, drillers and grid engineers; displaced workers in fossil regions
Influence and cohesion	Medium	Exporter leverage declines; regional gains and losses divide opinion within nations
Economic
Macro-financial	High	Exporter budgets, pegs and sovereign spreads; written-down reserves and plant; lower importer fuel bills
Industry, trade and supply	High	Energy-intensive industry and data centres relocate to low-cost, connected power
Energy and resources	High	Generation mix and price formation change; hydrocarbon demand outlook falls; mineral demand rises

09Stakeholders

Government: Exposure
Fiscal dependence on hydrocarbons, or the capacity of grids, permitting offices and power market rules to absorb new plant
Actions
Approve transmission corridors and staff permitting and connection offices ahead of demand
Reform wholesale power markets so that firm clean capacity is paid for reliability
Hydrocarbon-dependent states: test the budget against demand 20 per cent lower ten years ahead and bring forward diversification
Watch
Audited cost and reliability results from combined clean power plants
Median grid connection lead time and curtailment rates
Fiscal break-even oil price against the forward price
Technology: Exposure
Power is the main operating input to computing; the siting of data centres and equipment manufacture follows cost and connection time
Actions
Sign long-term supply contracts in locations with firm clean power and short connection times
Secure transformers, cable, cells and critical minerals under multi-year agreements
Design loads for flexible demand so that sites can connect earlier
Watch
Delivery times for transformers and high-voltage equipment
Contract prices for round-the-clock clean supply
Lithium, copper and graphite prices and supply concentration
Investors: Exposure
Hydrocarbon reserves and recently built fossil plant; exporter sovereign debt; relocation of heavy industry; a large pipeline of standardised projects
Actions
Test holdings against a 20 per cent downward revision to long-term hydrocarbon demand
Price exporter sovereign debt on fiscal break-even and the size of buffers
Assess project pipelines by connection date, not by financial close
Watch
Long-term oil, gas and coal demand outlooks
Reserve write-downs and cancelled field developments
Cost of debt for standard clean projects against thermal plant
Public: Exposure
Lower energy bills after a delay; employment lost in coal, oil and gas regions; new lines and plant built near communities
Actions
Local government: prepare land-use plans and consent procedures for lines and plant
Training providers: expand courses for electricians, drillers and grid technicians
Fossil regions: seek transition funding before plants and mines close
Watch
Retail tariff reviews and network charges
Closure dates for local plants and mines
Transition fund commitments and retraining places

10Regional exposure

Region	Exposure	Rationale
North America	High	Strong demand from data centres and industry; long connection queues limit the gain; shale and oil sands producers lose asset value
Europe	High	Large fuel importer with high industrial power costs; permitting and cross-border transmission decide whether heavy industry stays
China	High	Largest maker of modules, cells and grid equipment and largest fuel importer; coal provinces carry the adjustment
Indo-Pacific	High	Japan, Korea and Taiwan cut fuel import bills; Australia and Indonesia lose coal and gas revenue but hold minerals
South Asia	High	Lower import bills and faster electrification; weak distribution company finances and grid capacity limit delivery
Gulf and Middle East	High	Expected hydrocarbon revenue is revised down; strong solar resource and capital allow low-cost producers to diversify
Africa	High	Reliable supply becomes affordable where access is lowest; cost of capital constrains delivery; Nigeria, Angola and Algeria lose revenue
Latin America and Caribbean	High	Copper and lithium exporters gain and hydropower adds firm supply; Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia lose oil income
Russia and Eurasia	High	Budgets depend on oil and gas; lower expected demand raises borrowing costs and reduces the value of pipeline supply

11Early-warning indicators

Indicator	Source	Threshold
Levelised cost of solar, wind, storage and firm clean power	IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs; BloombergNEF; Lazard	Firm clean supply at or below 60 per cent of the cost of new gas plant in three or more markets
Operating record of enhanced geothermal and advanced fission plants	US Energy Information Administration plant-level generation data; IAEA Power Reactor Information System	Two years of commercial operation at contracted availability
Grid connection queue volume and lead time	Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Queued Up; ENTSO-E	Median lead time above five years
Clean energy investment and cost of capital by region	IEA World Energy Investment	—
Industrial electricity prices by country	Eurostat; IEA Energy Prices	Gap of 30 per cent or more between adopting nations and comparable non-adopters
Long-term oil, gas and coal demand outlooks	IEA World Energy Outlook; OPEC World Oil Outlook	Demand ten years ahead revised down by 10 per cent or more between successive editions
Fiscal break-even oil price by exporter	IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia	Break-even above the forward price for three consecutive years
Critical mineral prices and supply concentration	IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook; US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries	—

12Compounds

Triggers: S02 Global funding seizure · If hydrocarbon assets and exporter sovereign debt are repriced abruptly
S05 Legitimacy rupture · Fiscal retrenchment in hydrocarbon-dependent states
S01 Trade bloc rupture · Competition for minerals, cells and grid equipment
S16 Water-efficient food leap · Cheaper power for irrigation, desalination and fertiliser
S08 AI labour shock · Cheaper firm power lowers the cost of inference at scale.
Triggered by: S17 Automated discovery step · Gains in materials, drilling and reactor design
S13 Great-power détente · Freer trade in modules, cells and grid equipment
S03 Regional war spillover · A fuel price shock accelerates the move away from imported hydrocarbons
S11 Debt service reset · Restored creditworthiness lowers the cost of capital for power projects in participating states
S12 Market access opening · New industrial load and lower tariffs on equipment bring standardised clean power projects forward
Amplified by: S11 Debt service reset · Fiscal room for grid investment in indebted states
S12 Market access opening · Common standards and lower tariffs on equipment
Amplifying trends: Enhanced geothermalSolar manufacturing cost declineBatteries & energy storageGrid expansion & demand flexibilityHydrocarbon revenue dependenceAdvanced nuclear fissionElectrification of heat & industryCritical minerals supply constraints
Key trends: Batteries & energy storageVery high Commodity dependence & price volatilityVery high Solar manufacturing cost declineVery high Renewable generation expansionVery high Grid expansion & demand flexibilityVery high Energy import dependenceVery high Hydrocarbon revenue dependenceVery high Advanced nuclear fissionVery high
From GINC Trends: the trends rated Very high or Critical for this scenario, of 250. All S15 trend scores.

13Rating rationale

Rating	Band or level	Why
Likelihood, two years	3Possible	Each component is commercial or close to it: battery project costs reached a record low in 2025 and the first commercial enhanced geothermal phase is due on the grid in 2026. The Standard Severe event needs more: independent verification of the combined system at a 40 per cent discount to new fossil plant in several climate zones. Trial periods and construction lead times make that possible within two years but not probable.
Likelihood, ten years	4Likely	Solar electricity costs fell by more than 80 per cent in a decade and storage costs are following. Ten years allows several firm clean options to complete commercial trials and reach standard designs. The band is not 5 because the threshold requires reliability and replication across climate zones, and firm clean generation has a much shorter cost record than solar or batteries.
Systemic impact	4Major	Electricity is an input to every sector. A 30 per cent fall in industrial power costs in adopting economies, faster electrification and the relocation of energy-intensive investment change output in many nations, while hydrocarbon asset values and exporter revenues are revised down. GINC places the combined change, counting gains and losses, at 2.5 to 5 per cent of global output over five years. Grid constraints keep it below level 5.
National impact	4Major	The highest dimension reached is economic. A hydrocarbon-dependent state faces lower expected revenue, dearer borrowing and written-down reserves; a grid-ready importer gains a lasting cost advantage. Level 4, not 5, because prices and volumes fall over years after expectations move, which leaves time to adjust. The 1986 oil price collapse shows the level reached when the revenue loss is abrupt.
Confidence	medium	Component cost trends are well measured. The cost of the combined firm system, the pace of standardised finance and the response of hydrocarbon demand are less certain.

Source of scores: model-panel-v0.5. Confidence refers to the rating, not the scenario. Calibration sources are listed with the anchors above and on the scenario methodology page.

14Open questions

Contested assumptions for the panel to resolve.

Whether a 40 per cent discount to new fossil plant is the right threshold, or whether the test should be the running cost of existing plant, which is a harder standard.
Whether an event that takes five years to change costs and revenues is a shock with an onset of months or an accelerated trend with a dated announcement.
How to rate one scenario in which the typical highly exposed nation may be a grid-ready importer that gains or a hydrocarbon-dependent state that loses.
Whether the gain is material for a nation whose connection lead time exceeds the five-year test period.

15Commentary

No signed commentary in this build.

16Version and citation

Version: 0.5.0 · active · clean-power-threshold
Change log: 0.5.0 · 9 October 2026 · Rebuilt in the second pass from Energy abundance breakthrough: open-ended abundance replaced by an observable threshold, firm clean power at 40 per cent below new fossil plant; onset moved from years to months; systemic impact raised to 4 and national impact lowered to 4; fusion and a fixed oil price fall removed.
Full change log

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	3Possible	4Likely	4Major	4Major	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.5.0	9 October 2026	Rebuilt in the second pass from Energy abundance breakthrough: open-ended abundance replaced by an observable threshold, firm clean power at 40 per cent below new fossil plant; onset moved from years to months; systemic impact raised to 4 and national impact lowered to 4; fusion and a fixed oil price fall removed.

Citation and downloads

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale, Scenario Library v0.5. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios/clean-power-threshold

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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