Simulation 10
Brazil, greedy, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.06 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 17 (median simulation), 4 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.06 (+0.37)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 29
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.53 −0.164 |
| 2028 |
| 11.56 +0.029 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.62 +0.060 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.40 −0.218 |
| 2031 |
| 11.49 +0.088 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.59 +0.105 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.68 +0.084 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.77 +0.093 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 11.76 −0.007 |
| 2036 |
| Middle East settlement | 11.75 −0.010 |
| 2037 |
| 11.73 −0.021 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.83 +0.101 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.93 +0.098 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.01 +0.076 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.10 +0.092 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.19 +0.088 | |
| 2043 |
| AI labour shock | 12.11 −0.079 |
| 2044 |
| 12.06 −0.052 | |
| 2045 |
| 11.99 −0.068 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.06 +0.072 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.656 | −118.9 | −0.80 |
| No shocks | +0.446 | +31.9 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.342 | +23.9 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.153 | +11.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.129 | +9.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 16.45 | +5.95 | +6.83 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.11 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 18.09 | +5.59 | +5.96 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.18 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.48 | +5.48 | +7.35 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.06 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 14.76 | +5.43 | +6.64 | 0.00 | −2.26 | +1.05 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 16.06 | +5.39 | +6.38 | 0.00 | −0.99 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 10.30 | +4.97 | +5.97 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 16.22 | +4.72 | +5.49 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.53 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 13.76 | +4.36 | +5.77 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.05 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 15.21 | +3.54 | +4.06 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.18 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 14.61 | +3.36 | +3.98 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.14 | +3.14 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.21 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 17.38 | +3.13 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.59 | +1.92 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 13.84 | +1.84 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.27 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.41 | +1.74 | +3.26 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 13.89 | +1.56 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.80 | +1.55 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.33 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 14.01 | +1.51 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.10 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.48 | +1.48 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.37 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 13.43 | +1.43 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 12.37 | +1.04 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.36 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 9.82 | +1.02 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 9.99 | +0.19 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.24 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.06 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 11.90 | −0.10 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −2.45 | +0.20 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.55 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.32 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.12 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.98 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.60 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.88 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.01 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.75 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.26 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.13 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.47 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.26 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.34 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 10.79 | −0.54 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.28 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.40 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.25 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.59 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.11 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.21 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.70 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.81 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.93 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.05 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.73 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.13 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.08 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 10.49 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 11.75 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 9.55 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.15 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 9.87 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.12 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.04 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.23 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.06 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.20 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.09 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 8.32 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.73 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.16 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 12.98 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.17 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.63 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 12.58 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.09 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 12.14 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.10 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.53 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.06 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.18 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.47 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.02 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 12.20 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 13.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.24 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.34 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.12 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.21 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.14 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.18 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 11.83 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 12.62 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 9.23 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | +0.28 |
Seed 10 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-bra-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.