Regional view

South Asia

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeLow reserves, large refinancing needs and dependence on imported fuel paid for in foreign currency.3Possible4Severe122
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityCrude and LNG imports and remittances from the Gulf depend on the theatre; fiscal buffers are thin.3Possible4Severe123
HighBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesHeat and a weak monsoon cut domestic wheat and rice; Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra waters are contested; undernutrition is high and fiscal space thin.3Possible4Severe124
HighAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureIT and business process exports are the main source of graduate employment in India and a growing one in its neighbours.3Possible4Severe125
HighMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeLarge young workforces and port corridors to East Africa; standards and customs capacity decide the gain3Possible4Major12Library
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesLower import bills and faster electrification; weak distribution company finances and grid capacity limit delivery3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesGroundwater depletion and large smallholder populations make water-efficient output the main gain; pumping subsidies complicate adoption.3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthDiabetes and heart disease strike early in working life; the generic manufacturing base supplies other regions.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthDense populations with limited staffed beds and oxygen supply; a large vaccine manufacturing base that is subject to export restriction.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityBangladesh in 2024 and Nepal in 2025 show rapid loss of authority; disputed elections and politicised courts recur.2Unlikely4Severe88
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesMonsoon floods, cyclones, extreme heat and Himalayan seismic risk meet dense cities, low insurance cover and limited fiscal space.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradePakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives are candidates; the release is large relative to revenue.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureIndia supplies the model and much of the open software; neighbours with large benefit programmes have the most to gain2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthVaccine production in India supplies several regions; density and thin hospital capacity raise the stakes at home.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeGains diverted orders, but its pharmaceutical and electronics industries depend on imported ingredients and components.3Possible4Severe121
MediumHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityCampaigns below the threshold of war are established between neighbours; grids have little reserve.3Possible4Severe126
MediumAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureContract research and generics face repricing; a large trained workforce can capture gains if automated laboratories are built3Possible4Major12Library
MediumMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityGulf energy imports and remittances from Gulf labour markets become more secure. Corridor plans to Europe revive.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureVery large digital identity and payment systems in India; lower digital dependence elsewhere in the region.1Remote4Severe410
MediumGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityIndia loses part of its diversion gain and some leverage; lower input costs offset a share of the loss1Remote4Major4Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which South Asia is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.