Regional view

Gulf and Middle East

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityTheatre of the default case: facilities struck, exports stopped, residents and migrant workers displaced.3Possible4Severe123
HighBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesMost staples are imported and Egypt is among the largest wheat buyers; water is scarce and Nile, Tigris and Euphrates flows are disputed.3Possible4Severe124
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesExpected hydrocarbon revenue is revised down; strong solar resource and capital allow low-cost producers to diversify3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesThe most water-scarce region and heavily import-dependent for staples: import bills fall and irrigated output rises within fixed water budgets.3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthDiabetes prevalence is some of the highest in the world; the means to pay exist but care is hospital-centred.3Possible4Major12Library
HighLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securitySuccession and constitutional rulings are the likely triggers; several states have armed groups outside the state chain of command.2Unlikely4Severe88
HighMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityThe parties. Verification, reconstruction, returns and armed resistance all fall here.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureFinancial centres, energy trading and state communications are high-value targets; reliance on foreign security suppliers is high.1Remote4Severe410
MediumTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeEnergy sales continue to both blocs. Technology purchases, re-export hubs and investment funds face secondary restrictions.3Possible4Severe121
MediumGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeSovereign funds take valuation losses and oil revenue falls; reserves cover the exporters but not the importers of the region.3Possible4Severe122
MediumAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructurePublic sector employment and expatriate professional labour are exposed. Capital for adoption is available and labour taxation is light.3Possible4Severe125
MediumHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityDrone and proxy attacks on energy and desalination assets; cable routes are concentrated in the Red Sea.3Possible4Severe126
MediumMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeSupplier of capital, energy and transhipment to the new corridors3Possible4Major12Library
MediumAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureCapital and power can buy compute and laboratories; skilled evaluators and a domestic research base are scarce outside Israel3Possible4Major12Library
MediumSevere pandemic S10EHealthYoung populations and fiscal resources in the Gulf; exposure through migrant worker housing, mass gatherings and conflict-affected health systems.2Unlikely4Severe87
MediumCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesExtreme heat and flash floods are rising; Türkiye and Iran carry major seismic risk, while Gulf states hold fiscal buffers.2Unlikely4Severe89
MediumDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeEgypt, Jordan and Lebanon as candidate debtors; Gulf states as creditors and depositors.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureGulf states have capital and digital government; elsewhere conflict and weak audit limit the gain2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthCapital to purchase and small populations; a mobile migrant workforce and mass gatherings test delivery.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityStronger trade supports energy demand; there is less room to balance between the two powers1Remote4Major4Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 4 ranked scenarios to which Gulf and Middle East is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.