Regional view

Africa

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeInternational bond market access closes, trade finance is withdrawn and creditor groups are divided.3Possible4Severe122
HighBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesImport-dependent cities, rain-fed farming, fertiliser dependence, low reserves of grain and foreign exchange and high existing acute food insecurity.3Possible4Severe124
HighMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeProcessing zones and young workforces gain where suppliers qualify; the widest gap between members and bypassed neighbours3Possible4Major12Library
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesReliable supply becomes affordable where access is lowest; cost of capital constrains delivery; Nigeria, Angola and Algeria lose revenue3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesThe widest yield gap and the largest potential gain; seed systems, rural finance and storage are the weakest links.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthThe fewest health workers per head and late vaccine access; young populations lower fatality, but ordinary care and immunisation are displaced.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityKenya in 2007 and Côte d'Ivoire in 2010 are the direct precedents; coups have followed disputed mandates.2Unlikely4Severe88
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesFloods and cyclones strike fast-growing coastal and river cities with thin drainage, low insurance cover and little arranged finance.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeMost participating states; interest bills had exceeded health or education spending in many of them.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureThe largest gap between paper delivery and what is possible, with wide mobile money use to build on2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthRegional plants change the supply position; vaccinators and cold chain outside main cities are the constraint.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeMineral exporters gain bargaining power. Importers face higher prices, tied finance and pressure over standards.3Possible4Severe121
MediumRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityFuel, food and fertiliser import costs rise and East African freight is disrupted; some oil exporters gain.3Possible4Severe123
MediumAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureSmall formal services sectors limit direct displacement. Outsourcing centres and the route to services-led growth are at risk.3Possible4Severe125
MediumAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureLarge potential gains in neglected diseases and crops; few laboratories or evaluators to direct the systems at local priorities3Possible4Major12Library
MediumChronic disease advance S19EHealthThe burden is rising from a lower base in young populations; thin primary care and diagnostics limit capture.3Possible4Major12Library
MediumMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityRed Sea and East African ports regain traffic. Horn of Africa states face less spillover from Yemen.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureLower digital dependence, but mobile money and new identity systems use imported cryptography and local migration capacity is thin.1Remote4Severe410
MediumGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityMineral exporters lose the premium from rival bidding; importers gain from lower prices of manufactured goods1Remote4Major4Library
LowHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityFew states face a capable state adversary with motive; fragile grids raise the damage where one does.3Possible4Severe126

Regional loading profile

Of the 5 ranked scenarios to which Africa is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.