Regional view

Europe

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeExport-dependent manufacturing buys inputs from one bloc and sells to both. Little domestic processing of critical materials.3Possible4Severe121
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeBanks are exposed to property and to domestic government debt; several members have high debt and limited fiscal room.3Possible4Severe122
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityLNG, jet fuel and diesel imports; trade with Asia through Suez; allied obligations and arrivals of displaced people.3Possible4Severe123
HighAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureHigh shares of administrative and professional employment, revenue that depends on labour taxation and few domestic frontier providers.3Possible4Severe125
HighHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityThe most active theatre: Baltic cable damage, drone incursions, airport closures and incendiary parcels, with dense cross-border cables and interconnectors.3Possible4Severe126
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesLarge fuel importer with high industrial power costs; permitting and cross-border transmission decide whether heavy industry stays3Possible4Major12Library
HighAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureDeep research base and large pharmaceutical and chemical industries; approval speed decides whether discoveries are captured or filed elsewhere3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthStrong primary care in many states supports capture; ageing populations make the pension revision large.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthOld populations, dense travel links and health workforce shortages; staffed capacity is exceeded early in the first affected cities.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthManufacturing depth and cross-border regulation; ageing populations make the avoided hospital demand large.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureHeavy reliance on qualified electronic signatures and national identity schemes; migration timetables differ between member states.1Remote4Severe410
HighGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityFaces renewed Chinese competition without tariff parity, and must review de-risking policy and defence assumptions1Remote4Major4Library
MediumBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesNet cereal exporter with fertiliser tied to imported gas; southern water stress, food inflation and migration pressure from neighbouring importers.3Possible4Severe124
MediumMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeMachinery and services exporters gain access; protected farm and vehicle producers lose share3Possible4Major12Library
MediumWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesConsumers gain modestly; high-cost cereal producers lose margin; slower approval of edited varieties limits domestic uptake.3Possible4Major12Library
MediumLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityRomania's 2024 annulment shows the judicial pathway; administration is generally robust to a disputed result.2Unlikely4Severe88
MediumCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesRiver floods and heat are the main hazards, with seismic risk in the south-east; activity is dispersed and public backstops are strong.2Unlikely4Severe89
MediumMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityShorter Suez routes and lower oil and gas risk. A reconstruction donor and a source of contractors.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureMost services are already digital; the remaining gain is inclusion and interoperability across borders and agencies2Unlikely4Major8Library
LowDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeParis Club creditors and London-law bonds; losses are small relative to the financial system.2Unlikely4Major8Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which Europe is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.