Regional view

Latin America and Caribbean

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeCurrency depreciation, lower commodity prices and foreign-currency debt arrive together.3Possible4Severe122
HighMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeComponent, food-processing and services investment for members; closely competing non-members lose investment3Possible4Major12Library
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesCopper and lithium exporters gain and hydropower adds firm supply; Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia lose oil income3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesBrazil and Argentina lose export margin; Central American and Andean smallholders gain; the risk of land concentration is highest here.3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthHigh obesity and diabetes, notably in Mexico; segmented health coverage decides who is reached.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthLarge informal workforces cannot isolate without income; unequal access to care and limited fiscal room for prolonged support.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityBolivia in 2019 and Venezuela since 2019 show disputed counts leading to rival claims and police refusals.2Unlikely4Severe88
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesHurricanes, earthquakes and El Niño floods fall on dominant capital cities; Caribbean states can lose more than a year's output.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeArgentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and several Caribbean states are candidates; bond-heavy debt makes private participation decisive.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureBrazil's instant payment system is the regional reference; large informal sectors raise both the tax gain and the resistance2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthRegional producers in Brazil and Argentina reduce import dependence; primary care delivery and trust set the result.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeCommodity exporters sell to both blocs. Mexico's manufacturing is bound to one, and lithium and copper attract rival offers.3Possible4Severe121
MediumRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityDistant from the fighting; importers pay more for fuel and fertiliser while oil and grain exporters gain.3Possible4Severe123
MediumBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesBrazil and Argentina export and may gain or fail; Caribbean and Central American importers and the dry corridor are exposed.3Possible4Severe124
MediumAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureNearshore services and urban professional employment are exposed. Large informal sectors limit the measured share.3Possible4Severe125
MediumAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureStrong public research institutes in a few states; regulatory capacity and funding limit capture elsewhere3Possible4Major12Library
MediumCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureInstant payment systems and digital tax administration are exposed; state archives are a lesser intelligence target.1Remote4Severe410
MediumGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityMexico loses part of its nearshoring advantage; commodity exporters gain from firmer demand in both markets1Remote4Major4Library
LowHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityState-directed coercion of this kind is rare in the region.3Possible4Severe126
LowMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityOil exporters lose a share of the price premium. Direct trade exposure is small.2Unlikely4Major8Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 4 ranked scenarios to which Latin America and Caribbean is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.