Regional view

Indo-Pacific

Japan, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN, Australia, New Zealand, Pacific.

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeAssembles for both blocs. Plants in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN depend on inputs and tools from each side.3Possible4Severe121
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityJapan, Korea and Taiwan import most of their energy by sea; ASEAN straits and allied bases are exposed.3Possible4Severe123
HighAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureOutsourcing in the Philippines and services centres in Singapore and Australia are exposed. Ageing workforces in Japan and Korea soften the effect.3Possible4Severe125
HighHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityTaiwan's subsea cables have been cut repeatedly; Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Australia face maritime coercion and intrusion into operators.3Possible4Severe126
HighMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeSouth-East Asian members take redirected component and electronics investment; advanced members supply capital and services3Possible4Major12Library
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesJapan, Korea and Taiwan cut fuel import bills; Australia and Indonesia lose coal and gas revenue but hold minerals3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesRice importers gain from larger harvests and lower prices; Thailand, Vietnam and Australia lose export income.3Possible4Major12Library
HighAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureJapan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia hold materials, chip and biomanufacturing capacity; much of ASEAN and the Pacific depends on licences3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthJapan and Korea face the sharpest longevity pressure; South-East Asian and Pacific states have rising diabetes and uneven primary care.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthDense trade and travel hubs; several states have strong outbreak response, while island and lower-income members depend on imported countermeasures.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesTyphoons and earthquakes strike capital regions directly; in Pacific island states the core is most of the country.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureSouth-East Asian states are linking instant payment systems; archipelagos and Pacific islands gain most from remote access2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthStrong surveillance and experience of earlier outbreaks; trade-dependent economies gain from open borders.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureAdvanced digital economies with dense trade documentation and semiconductor supply chains; alliance communications are intelligence targets.1Remote4Severe410
HighGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityIncident risk around Taiwan falls; Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand lose diverted orders and allies review defence plans1Remote4Major4Library
MediumGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeOpen capital accounts and export dependence transmit the shock; reserves and current-account surpluses absorb much of it.3Possible4Severe122
MediumBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesRice importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia and import-dependent Pacific islands are exposed; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam export.3Possible4Severe124
MediumLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityDisputed counts and military involvement have precedents in parts of ASEAN and the Pacific; advanced economies are less exposed.2Unlikely4Severe88
MediumDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeLaos and several Pacific island states are candidates; Japan is a major official creditor.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityJapan, Korea and Taiwan depend on Gulf energy routes. ASEAN shippers regain the Suez route.2Unlikely4Major8Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which Indo-Pacific is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.