Regional view

North America

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeA principal in the rupture. Depends on the opposing bloc for processed rare earths, magnets and medicine ingredients.3Possible4Severe121
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeOrigin of the technology and property repricing; the largest non-bank sector and the dollar funding markets on which others depend.3Possible4Severe122
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityAlliance and partner commitments draw forces and munitions; net energy exports do not shield consumers from world prices.3Possible4Severe123
HighAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureHome of the leading model owners and early adopters. Large professional services employment and flexible dismissal rules bring fast displacement.3Possible4Severe125
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesStrong demand from data centres and industry; long connection queues limit the gain; shale and oil sands producers lose asset value3Possible4Major12Library
HighAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureHome to most system developers and much automated laboratory capacity; gains, patents and the dual-use control problem concentrate here3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthHigh obesity and diabetes prevalence and payment by the procedure: a large health gain and a large loss of provider revenue.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthHigh air connectivity and chronic illness prevalence; a strong countermeasure industry is offset by low trust in health authorities and fragmented delivery.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesHurricane, wildfire and earthquake exposure meets very high asset values on the Gulf, Atlantic and Pacific coasts; insurers are withdrawing from several markets.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthPlatform developers and large manufacturers supply the network; contested trust in health authorities limits uptake.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureLargest concentration of cloud, certificate and payment services and extensive archived government traffic; migration capacity is strong and federal deadlines are set.1Remote4Severe410
HighGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityThe United States is a party; consumers and exporters gain, while protected plants and Mexico's nearshoring trade lose1Remote4Major4Library
MediumBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesExporter with secure supply, but a candidate failing region; drought cuts western water and hydropower, and consumer food inflation rises.3Possible4Severe124
MediumHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityAdvisories in 2024 confirmed access placed in communications, energy and water operators; distance limits physical sabotage.3Possible4Severe126
MediumMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeMexico is a candidate member and gains assembly; protected producers in the larger economies face member competition3Possible4Major12Library
MediumWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesA major grain exporter: lower prices reduce farm income, while seed, irrigation and analytics firms sell into deployment.3Possible4Major12Library
MediumLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityCertification was disrupted in 2021 and polarisation is high, but courts, officials and security forces held.2Unlikely4Severe88
MediumPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureFederal and state systems are fragmented and private payment networks are entrenched; the gain is real but resistance is strong2Unlikely4Major8Library
LowDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeCreditor region with little direct gain; New York law governs many of the bonds.2Unlikely4Major8Library
LowMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityActs as a guarantor. Shale producers face a lower oil risk premium.2Unlikely4Major8Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 7 ranked scenarios to which North America is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.