Regional view

Russia and Eurasia

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeAlready under sanctions and reliant on one bloc for technology and markets. Central Asian transit states face secondary restrictions.3Possible4Severe121
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityExporters gain on price, but Black Sea and Baltic variants place the region in the theatre and transit routes are disrupted.3Possible4Severe123
HighHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityUkraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia are direct targets; grid attack by cyber means was first used here.3Possible4Severe126
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesBudgets depend on oil and gas; lower expected demand raises borrowing costs and reduces the value of pipeline supply3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthHigh cardiovascular mortality among working-age men gives a large potential gain; primary care and access are weak.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthOlder populations with high chronic illness, uneven regional health capacity and low vaccine confidence.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityDisputed counts have brought mass protest and annulment in the region, with open external backing for incumbents or challengers.2Unlikely4Severe88
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthDomestic vaccine capability but partial participation in sharing arrangements; exclusion delays access for neighbours as well.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureState communications and archives are prime intelligence targets; sanctions limit access to replacement hardware and validated modules.1Remote4Severe410
HighGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityRussia's value to China as a strategic partner falls; Central Asian transit and re-export trade is exposed1Remote4Major4Library
MediumGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeCommodity revenue falls; Central Asian borrowers are exposed, while Russia is already largely outside Western funding markets.3Possible4Severe122
MediumBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesRussia and Kazakhstan gain as exporters unless they are a failing region; Central Asian water sharing and importers in the Caucasus are exposed.3Possible4Severe124
MediumAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureRestricted access to frontier models slows adoption. IT outsourcing and public administration are exposed.3Possible4Severe125
MediumWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesRussia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan lose export income and leverage; irrigated farming in Central Asia gains from water savings.3Possible4Major12Library
MediumAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureSkilled scientists but restricted access to chips and licensed systems; open versions help and defence applications take priority3Possible4Major12Library
MediumCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesCentral Asian and Caucasus capitals sit on active faults; Russian activity is dispersed, with wildfire and river floods the main hazards.2Unlikely4Severe89
MediumDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeThe Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan owe large sums to Chinese lenders; Russia is a bilateral creditor.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructureStates can build the systems quickly; weak independent oversight makes rights-respecting operation the hardest condition to meet2Unlikely4Major8Library
LowMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeLargely outside the compact; little new investment and some loss of transit trade3Possible4Major12Library
LowMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityOil exporters lose price support and arms sales. Direct exposure to the settlement is limited.2Unlikely4Major8Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 6 ranked scenarios to which Russia and Eurasia is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.