Regional view

China

Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

ExposureScenarioFamilyRationaleL2yNatPriorityRank
HighTrade bloc rupture S01AEconomic and tradeA principal in the rupture. Loses access to advanced chips, chip-making tools and its largest export markets.3Possible4Severe121
HighGlobal funding seizure S02AEconomic and tradeProperty losses and local government debt are already large and export demand falls, although capital controls limit outflows.3Possible4Severe122
HighRegional war spillover S03BGeopolitical and securityThe world's largest crude importer, supplied through Hormuz and Malacca; a belligerent in the East Asian variant.3Possible4Severe123
HighBreadbasket failure S06CEnergy, climate and resourcesLargest importer of soya beans and feed grain; northern water stress; large reserves soften the first year but rebuilding them tightens world supply.3Possible4Severe124
HighAI labour shock S08DTechnology and infrastructureDomestic models and rapid adoption, with graduate unemployment already high and a large clerical workforce.3Possible4Severe125
HighClean power threshold S15CEnergy, climate and resourcesLargest maker of modules, cells and grid equipment and largest fuel importer; coal provinces carry the adjustment3Possible4Major12Library
HighWater-efficient food leap S16CEnergy, climate and resourcesWater stress on the northern plain, a large smallholder base and strong domestic crop science make uptake fast.3Possible4Major12Library
HighAutomated discovery step S17DTechnology and infrastructureLaboratory scale, state research funding and open-weight models support fast adoption; access to advanced chips sets the pace3Possible4Major12Library
HighChronic disease advance S19EHealthVery large diabetic and hypertensive population, domestic manufacturing and rapid ageing; hospital-centred care has to change.3Possible4Major12Library
HighSevere pandemic S10EHealthDense cities and a large older population; strong manufacturing and control capacity, with a high economic cost from prolonged restrictions.2Unlikely4Severe87
HighCore disaster S07CEnergy, climate and resourcesTyphoon, flood and earthquake exposure coincides with the delta city clusters that hold a large share of output and exports.2Unlikely4Severe89
HighOutbreak defence succeeds S20EHealthLarge manufacturing base and dense cities; the gain depends on timely sharing of samples and data.2Unlikely4Major8Library
HighCryptographic trust break S09DTechnology and infrastructureA large state and financial estate on public-key systems, including national elliptic-curve algorithms; exposure depends on which power holds the capability.1Remote4Severe410
HighGreat-power détente S13BGeopolitical and securityParty to the agreement; export access and selected technology inputs are restored under monitoring1Remote4Major4Library
MediumMarket access opening S12AEconomic and tradeChinese firms invest in member states to qualify under the rule of origin; some assembly moves to member neighbours3Possible4Major12Library
MediumDebt service reset S11AEconomic and tradeLargest official bilateral creditor; extends maturities, records losses and sets a precedent for future lending.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumMiddle East settlement S14BGeopolitical and securityThe largest buyer of Gulf crude gains secure supply. Contractors compete for reconstruction work.2Unlikely4Major8Library
MediumPublic service leap S18DTechnology and infrastructurePayments and services are already digital on platform firms and state systems; independent testing and consent are the gap2Unlikely4Major8Library
LowHybrid coercion S04BGeopolitical and securityLow as a target: state control of operators and networks limits a deniable campaign.3Possible4Severe126
LowLegitimacy rupture S05BGeopolitical and securityNo electoral transfer; a succession dispute would follow a different pathway from the one specified.2Unlikely4Severe88

Regional loading profile

Of the 8 ranked scenarios to which China is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.