Simulation 13
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.50 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 23 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.50 (+0.01)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 33
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.55 +0.067 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.63 +0.080 | |
| 2029 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.30 −0.339 |
| 2030 |
| 11.41 +0.117 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.52 +0.110 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.64 +0.119 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.50 −0.142 |
| 2034 |
| 11.63 +0.127 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 11.08 −0.546 |
| 2036 |
| 11.20 +0.120 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.30 +0.094 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.41 +0.112 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.19 −0.223 |
| 2040 |
| 11.29 +0.103 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.44 +0.149 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.53 +0.089 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.61 +0.082 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 11.55 −0.056 |
| 2045 |
| 11.52 −0.029 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.50 −0.025 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.326 | −171.6 | −1.40 |
| No shocks | +1.064 | +78.7 | +2.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.616 | +45.2 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.433 | +31.1 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.301 | +22.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 12.11 | +9.61 | +12.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.65 | +7.98 | +10.01 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.13 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 14.87 | +6.54 | +6.21 | 0.00 | −2.56 | +2.90 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.93 | +5.93 | +6.51 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.05 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.06 | +5.56 | +8.16 | 0.00 | −2.86 | +0.25 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 9.97 | +5.37 | +6.64 | 0.00 | −2.22 | +0.95 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 18.43 | +4.93 | +6.67 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.38 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 9.29 | +4.49 | +6.96 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 9.31 | +4.17 | +6.21 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 13.59 | +3.59 | +6.12 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.08 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 8.98 | +3.31 | +4.86 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.31 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.22 | +2.72 | +5.38 | 0.00 | −2.96 | +0.29 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.02 | +2.69 | +5.44 | 0.00 | −2.81 | +0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.05 | +2.65 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 12.49 | +2.49 | +5.46 | 0.00 | −3.35 | +0.38 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.64 | +2.31 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 12.98 | +2.18 | +5.04 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.04 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.52 | +2.12 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.90 | +1.65 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.39 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 5.35 | +1.35 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −2.03 | +2.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.51 | +0.84 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.16 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 15.33 | +0.83 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.13 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.64 | +0.64 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.30 | +0.63 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +1.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.36 | +0.36 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.94 | +0.27 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.10 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.18 | −0.32 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.27 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.55 | −0.45 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 9.27 | −0.53 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −2.05 | +0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 5.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +1.07 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 14.00 | −0.75 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −3.13 | +0.58 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.73 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 5.14 | −0.86 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −2.52 | +0.12 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.80 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.40 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.16 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 7.85 | −1.03 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.23 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 8.90 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.52 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.36 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.25 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 14.95 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.10 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.19 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 12.82 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.39 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.12 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.87 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 10.36 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 6.95 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.52 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.46 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.93 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.16 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.09 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 13.50 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.12 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.45 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 9.88 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.08 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 12.71 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.16 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 3.54 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.78 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.53 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.73 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.33 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 9.44 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.22 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.43 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.30 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 10.99 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.26 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.56 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.34 | +0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.89 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.13 | −2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.62 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 14.96 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 9.19 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | +0.43 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 9.46 | −2.54 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −4.26 | +0.13 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 9.28 | −2.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | +0.18 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.16 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 10.76 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 10.92 | −3.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.20 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.