Simulation 4
Brazil, tree search, 20 years, seed 4: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 13.43 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (median simulation), 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 13.43 (+1.74)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 22
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.71 +0.024 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.75 +0.032 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.79 +0.044 | |
| 2030 |
| AI labour shockMarket access opening | 11.79 +0.004 |
| 2031 |
| 11.83 +0.040 | |
| 2032 |
| Chronic disease advance | 11.91 +0.081 |
| 2033 |
| 12.04 +0.122 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.17 +0.132 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.28 +0.115 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.41 +0.125 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.52 +0.113 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.63 +0.113 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.73 +0.096 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.85 +0.115 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.96 +0.112 | |
| 2042 |
| 13.04 +0.084 | |
| 2043 |
| 13.12 +0.078 | |
| 2044 |
| 13.21 +0.086 | |
| 2045 |
| 13.32 +0.111 | |
| 2046 |
| 13.43 +0.111 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.724 | −123.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +0.442 | +31.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.332 | +23.3 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.154 | +11.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.124 | +9.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 18.27 | +7.60 | +7.55 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 17.62 | +7.12 | +6.88 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.27 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 16.14 | +6.81 | +6.03 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +1.11 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 19.12 | +6.62 | +6.02 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.25 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 18.41 | +6.41 | +6.55 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 15.55 | +6.15 | +6.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 10.99 | +5.66 | +5.43 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 16.78 | +5.28 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.69 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 16.51 | +5.26 | +4.87 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.20 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 17.52 | +5.02 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.30 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 14.90 | +4.90 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.45 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 16.03 | +4.36 | +3.58 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.59 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 16.97 | +3.97 | +3.48 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.53 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 18.08 | +3.83 | +3.73 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.08 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.11 | +3.44 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 15.38 | +3.38 | +3.07 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.37 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 15.65 | +3.32 | +3.19 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.99 | +3.32 | +3.39 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 11.19 | +2.94 | +2.32 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.57 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.12 | +2.79 | +2.35 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.59 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.21 | +2.41 | +2.31 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.40 | +2.40 | +2.28 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.18 | +2.18 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.26 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 13.01 | +1.68 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 11.26 | +1.46 | +1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 14.08 | +1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +1.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.69 | +1.26 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.04 | +1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.48 | +0.56 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 14.74 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.82 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.87 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.94 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 13.35 | +0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.45 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 14.13 | +0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.49 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 12.93 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.61 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 13.17 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.55 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 13.83 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.14 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.82 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.45 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.88 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.55 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 11.52 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 12.71 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.27 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 11.15 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 14.47 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.21 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.84 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 13.08 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.41 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 14.70 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.36 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 11.68 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.33 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.20 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.32 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.12 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.29 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 12.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.50 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.13 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.75 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.92 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.92 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.05 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.26 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.67 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 14.42 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.31 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 14.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.91 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 11.81 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.20 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.45 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.11 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 13.68 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.22 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.58 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.06 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 13.31 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 7.37 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 6.36 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.22 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.68 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.48 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.05 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.96 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.38 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.03 |
Seed 4 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-bra-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.