O45 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Financial Strength

Deeper long-term finance

Households, firms and public investment programmes have broader access to well-governed long-term finance through reliable financial institutions and markets.

Why it matters

Dependable long-term finance supports productive investment while preserving financial integrity and broad access.

Signs it has been reached

  • Long-term financing reaches more viable investment projects
  • Domestic savings fund more productive assets
  • Financial access expands under verified prudential standards

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Financial Regulation & Integrity
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Financial Infrastructure

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
49
of 197 · 9 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Clean power threshold
33 of 49 nations
Typical headroom
×4.7
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Clean power threshold
Chronic disease advance
Public service leap
Outbreak defence succeeds

33

13

2

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

40

9

Binding capability

Nations

Energy Technologies

Resource Infrastructure

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Health System Capability

Technical & Vocational Skills

20

11

10

2

2

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

012345Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 2.3Europe 42Europe mean: 0.9GermanySerbiaChina 1China mean: 3.3Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.5South KoreaJapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.1Saudi ArabiaAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0Russia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 5.5%, South Korea 4.5%, Japan 4.4%, Netherlands 4.0%, France 4.0%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5012345Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanySouth KoreaJapanNetherlandsChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1GermanyEurope17.0 Advanced → Frontier5.5% Likely1.7%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.2 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 13.5
2South KoreaIndo-Pacific15.9 Advanced → Advanced4.5% Possible1.3%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.3 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 11.8
3JapanIndo-Pacific17.0 Advanced → Frontier4.4% Possible1.3%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.3 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 11.8
4NetherlandsEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier4.0% Possible1.2%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierEnergy Technologies 12.4
5FranceEurope16.9 Advanced → Frontier4.0% Possible1.2%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 12.5
6TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.6 Established → Advanced3.8% Possible1.1%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 10
7SwedenEurope15.9 Advanced → Advanced3.8% Possible1.1%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 10.8
9SpainEurope14.3 Established → Advanced3.6% Possible1.1%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 12
8FinlandEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced3.6% Possible1.1%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 10
10ChinaChina15.4 Advanced → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & AccessTechnical & Vocational Skills 13
11ItalyEurope14.4 Established → Advanced3.1% Possible0.9%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 11.6
12CanadaNorth America16.4 Advanced → Advanced3.1% Possible0.9%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.6 S19Financial System Depth & AccessBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
13United KingdomEurope17.4 Advanced → Frontier2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.6 S19Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.3
14SingaporeIndo-Pacific17.8 Advanced → Frontier2.1% Possible0.6%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 8.8
15United StatesNorth America18.4 Frontier → Frontier1.6% Possible0.5%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.5 S19Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 15.7
17BelgiumEurope14.9 Established → Advanced1.3% Possible0.4%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.6 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 9.3
16SwitzerlandEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier1.3% Possible0.4%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.7 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 6.5
18AustriaEurope14.3 Established → Advanced1.1% Possible0.3%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.7 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 8
19IsraelGulf and Middle East13.7 Established → Advanced0.8% Unlikely0.2%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.9 S19Financial System Depth & AccessFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
20PolandEurope12.9 Established → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.7 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 9.4
21CzechiaEurope12.0 Established → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.7 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 8
22AustraliaIndo-Pacific16.4 Advanced → Frontier0.8% Unlikely0.2%Public service leap Major+Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.8 S19Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
23DenmarkEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced0.7% Unlikely0.1%Clean power threshold Major+Chronic disease advance Extreme×2.2 S19Financial System Depth & AccessBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15
24South AfricaAfrica13.4 Established → Established0.6% Unlikely0.1%Clean power threshold Extreme+Chronic disease advance Major×2.0 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 8.8
25IndiaSouth Asia13.4 Established → Established0.6% Unlikely0.2%Clean power threshold Extreme+Water-efficient food leap Severe×2.0 S15Financial System Depth & AccessTechnical & Vocational Skills 9

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.