O08 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Human Capital

Broad rise in human capital

The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 9 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Early Childhood Development
  • Foundational Education
  • Advanced Education
  • Technical & Vocational Skills
  • Digital & AI Competence
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
  • Research Talent & Knowledge Creation
  • Population Health
  • Health System Capability
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
60
of 197 · 11 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
34 of 60 nations
Typical headroom
×4.5
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Chronic disease advance
Automated discovery step
Market access opening
Public service leap
Water-efficient food leap

34

19

3

2

1

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

60

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Health System Capability

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

32

11

6

4

3

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0246810Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 10.5United StatesEurope 42Europe mean: 2.3FranceChina 1China mean: 4.6Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.5TaiwanPhilippinesSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.5QatarAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.1ColombiaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.1
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: United States 11%, Taiwan 11%, United Kingdom 10%, Netherlands 10%, France 10%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150246810Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)United StatesTaiwanUnited KingdomNetherlandsGermanyJapanChinaIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1United StatesNorth America15.8 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.2 S17Health System CapabilityHealth System Capability 15.7
2TaiwanIndo-Pacific15.4 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
4United KingdomEurope16.2 Advanced → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.3 S19Health System CapabilityHealth System Capability 16.3
5NetherlandsEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
3FranceEurope16.1 Advanced → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S17Health System CapabilityHealth System Capability 16.7
6GermanyEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S17Health System Capability · reaches FrontierNational Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4
7CanadaNorth America16.2 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.3 S19Health System Capability · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
8South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.5 Advanced → Frontier8.3% Likely2.4%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
9JapanIndo-Pacific16.6 Advanced → Frontier7.8% Likely2.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
10SwedenEurope16.9 Advanced → Frontier7.6% Likely2.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
11AustraliaIndo-Pacific16.3 Advanced → Advanced7.5% Likely2.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S19Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
12SingaporeIndo-Pacific17.2 Advanced → Frontier7.0% Likely2.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
13IsraelGulf and Middle East15.0 Advanced → Advanced6.8% Likely2.0%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.4 S17Health System CapabilityFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
14BelgiumEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced6.0% Likely1.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
15SwitzerlandEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier5.9% Likely1.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
16DenmarkEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier5.3% Likely1.6%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
17ChinaChina13.6 Established → Advanced4.6% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Major×1.3 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
18FinlandEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
19ItalyEurope13.7 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationArtificial Intelligence 11.3
20AustriaEurope15.8 Advanced → Advanced3.3% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationArtificial Intelligence 10
21SpainEurope14.5 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S19Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
22NorwayEurope16.6 Advanced → Frontier3.1% Possible0.9%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
23IrelandEurope15.0 Established → Advanced3.1% Possible0.9%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
25CzechiaEurope13.7 Established → Advanced2.3% Possible0.7%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.9 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8
24PolandEurope13.3 Established → Established2.3% Possible0.7%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×2.0 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.