O04 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Strategic Infrastructure

Broad rise in strategic infrastructure

The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 10 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Resource Infrastructure
  • Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
  • Advanced Manufacturing
  • Transport Infrastructure
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure
  • Financial Infrastructure
  • Social Infrastructure
  • Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
63
of 197 · 6 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
23 of 63 nations
Typical headroom
×4.2
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Clean power threshold
Automated discovery step
Middle East settlement
Market access opening
Water-efficient food leap

23

14

9

6

6

5

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

58

5

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Energy Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Artificial Intelligence

13

12

9

6

5

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

024681012Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 4.9Europe 42Europe mean: 2.5GermanyChina 1China mean: 4.5Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.6South KoreaTaiwanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.5Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0AlgeriaSenegalLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0PanamaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 12%, Taiwan 12%, Germany 12%, Netherlands 11%, Sweden 11%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.502.557.510Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaTaiwanGermanyNetherlandsJapanChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.3 Advanced → Frontier12% Likely3.9%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Resource Infrastructure · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 16
2TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.5 Established → Advanced12% Likely3.6%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S15Communications & Digital InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 12.3
3GermanyEurope16.3 Advanced → Frontier12% Likely3.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S15Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
4NetherlandsEurope15.8 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
5SwedenEurope14.9 Established → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
6FranceEurope16.6 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
7JapanIndo-Pacific16.8 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.2%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
8SingaporeIndo-Pacific14.5 Established → Advanced9.4% Likely2.9%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
9SwitzerlandEurope13.8 Established → Advanced9.2% Likely2.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
10United KingdomEurope16.0 Advanced → Advanced9.1% Likely2.7%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S17Social InfrastructureHealth System Capability 16.3
11BelgiumEurope13.8 Established → Advanced7.3% Likely2.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
12CanadaNorth America15.8 Advanced → Advanced6.7% Likely2.0%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
13FinlandEurope14.3 Established → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.6 S15Resource InfrastructureResource Infrastructure 10
14ItalyEurope14.5 Established → Advanced5.2% Likely1.6%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.6 S15Resource InfrastructureEnergy Technologies 11.6
15SpainEurope15.0 Established → Advanced5.2% Likely1.5%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Resource InfrastructureEnergy Technologies 12
16IsraelGulf and Middle East13.8 Established → Advanced4.6% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Communications & Digital InfrastructureSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
17ChinaChina17.4 Advanced → Frontier4.5% Possible1.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
18United StatesNorth America18.4 Frontier → Frontier3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.3 S17Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
19AustriaEurope12.8 Established → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.8 S17Communications & Digital InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 10
20IrelandEurope11.6 Transitional → Established2.8% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Social InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
21AustraliaIndo-Pacific15.6 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible0.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
22DenmarkEurope13.4 Established → Advanced2.1% Possible0.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Social InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
23CzechiaEurope12.1 Established → Established1.9% Possible0.5%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.8 S15Resource InfrastructureEnergy Technologies 8
24NorwayEurope14.9 Established → Advanced1.9% Possible0.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Social InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
26TürkiyeGulf and Middle East13.6 Established → Advanced1.8% Possible0.5%Market access opening Severe+Middle East settlement Severe×1.4 S14Energy InfrastructureJustice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.