O18 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Trade & Investment

Broad rise in trade and investment

The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 7 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics
  • Trade Policy & Market Access
  • Digital & Services Trade
  • Investment Attraction & Projection
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
  • Global Value Chain Position
  • Economic Leverage & Dependence
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
70
of 197 · 9 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Market access opening
30 of 70 nations
Typical headroom
×3.5
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Market access opening
Outbreak defence succeeds
Great-power détente
Clean power threshold
Automated discovery step

30

26

10

3

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

70

Binding capability

Nations

Energy Infrastructure

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Technical & Vocational Skills

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

13

11

11

10

6

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

05101520Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 8.4Europe 42Europe mean: 2.7United KingdomChina 1China mean: 7.4Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 2.2South KoreaJapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.3BahrainAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0GhanaNamibiaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 22%, United Kingdom 18%, Japan 14%, Germany 14%, Taiwan 12%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.505101520Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaUnited KingdomJapanGermanyUnited StatesChinaIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.7 Advanced → Frontier22% Likely6.9%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Major×1.0 S13Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2United KingdomEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely5.6%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Major×1.0 S13Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
3JapanIndo-Pacific17.3 Advanced → Frontier14% Likely4.3%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.3 S13Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16
4GermanyEurope17.5 Advanced → Frontier14% Likely4.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierNational Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4
5TaiwanIndo-Pacific15.2 Advanced → Advanced12% Likely3.8%Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Severe×1.3 S13Trade Facilitation & LogisticsDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7
6NetherlandsEurope16.6 Advanced → Frontier12% Likely3.6%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
7United StatesNorth America18.0 Frontier → Frontier11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1 S17Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 15.7
8FranceEurope16.9 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.7
9SwitzerlandEurope16.4 Advanced → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
10SwedenEurope15.7 Advanced → Advanced8.2% Likely2.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
11BelgiumEurope15.0 Advanced → Advanced8.1% Likely2.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
12ChinaChina17.1 Advanced → Frontier7.4% Likely2.2%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.5 S13Trade Facilitation & Logistics · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
13MalaysiaIndo-Pacific14.0 Established → Advanced6.9% Likely2.1%Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Severe×1.4 S13Trade Facilitation & LogisticsSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
14CanadaNorth America15.3 Advanced → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.3 S13Trade Facilitation & LogisticsSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
15FinlandEurope14.9 Established → Advanced4.6% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
16AustriaEurope14.5 Established → Advanced4.5% Possible1.3%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
17ItalyEurope14.8 Established → Advanced4.0% Possible1.2%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13
18DenmarkEurope15.1 Advanced → Advanced3.5% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
19IrelandEurope14.5 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible0.9%Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Severe×1.6 S13Trade Facilitation & LogisticsSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8
20AustraliaIndo-Pacific14.9 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
21IsraelGulf and Middle East13.9 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Trade Facilitation & LogisticsSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
22SpainEurope14.6 Established → Advanced3.0% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
23SingaporeIndo-Pacific18.1 Frontier → Frontier2.6% Possible0.7%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S13Export Capability & Sophistication · reaches FrontierDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14
24CzechiaEurope12.7 Established → Established2.6% Possible0.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.9 S20Trade Facilitation & LogisticsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8
25VietnamIndo-Pacific11.9 Transitional → Established2.2% Possible0.7%Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Severe×1.6 S12Trade Facilitation & LogisticsRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.