O39 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Information & Influence

Wider international influence

The nation sustains wider trusted international relationships and can secure practical cooperation through diplomatic, development, educational and community networks.

Why it matters

Wider relationships improve access to knowledge, cooperation and a voice in international decisions.

Signs it has been reached

  • More priority diplomatic initiatives secure practical cooperation
  • Development partnerships show independently verified lasting benefits
  • Educational and diaspora networks sustain wider institutional links

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Development Cooperation & Global Assistance
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
58
of 197 · 6 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Middle East settlement
29 of 58 nations
Typical headroom
×4.6
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Middle East settlement
Great-power détente
Outbreak defence succeeds
Public service leap

29

15

13

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

58

Binding capability

Nations

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks

Justice System & Fundamental Rights

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Intelligence & Assessment

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

12

9

8

8

5

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

012345Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 1.1Europe 42Europe mean: 0.7United KingdomChina 1China mean: 1.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.7South KoreaSingaporeSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.3KuwaitQatarAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0KenyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 6.0%, Singapore 5.5%, United Kingdom 5.3%, Germany 3.8%, Japan 3.8%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5012345Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaSingaporeUnited KingdomGermanyJapanChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific15.0 Advanced → Advanced6.0% Likely1.8%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.0 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2SingaporeIndo-Pacific13.0 Established → Established5.5% Likely1.7%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.1 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14
3United KingdomEurope17.7 Advanced → Frontier5.3% Likely1.6%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.0 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
4GermanyEurope17.2 Advanced → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches FrontierNational Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4
5JapanIndo-Pacific16.5 Advanced → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches FrontierDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16
6NetherlandsEurope15.8 Advanced → Advanced3.7% Possible1.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.5 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7CanadaNorth America16.0 Advanced → Advanced2.3% Possible0.7%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
8TaiwanIndo-Pacific8.7 Foundational → Transitional2.2% Possible0.7%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7
9SwedenEurope16.2 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible0.7%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.5 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
10BelgiumEurope14.1 Established → Advanced2.2% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.7 S20Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
11SwitzerlandEurope14.3 Established → Advanced1.8% Possible0.5%Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.6 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksAlliances & Security Cooperation 9.5
12FinlandEurope14.2 Established → Advanced1.6% Possible0.5%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.5 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksAlliances & Security Cooperation 14
13TürkiyeGulf and Middle East15.2 Advanced → Advanced1.5% Possible0.4%Market access opening Severe+Middle East settlement Severe×1.1 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksJustice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3
14SpainEurope14.1 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible0.4%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.6 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksIntelligence & Assessment 13.5
15IsraelGulf and Middle East12.3 Established → Established1.3% Possible0.4%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.2 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3
16ChinaChina16.5 Advanced → Frontier1.1% Possible0.3%Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.5 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
17IrelandEurope11.8 Transitional → Established1.1% Possible0.3%Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.6 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8
18FranceEurope18.0 Frontier → Frontier0.9% Unlikely0.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.4 S14Development Cooperation & Global Assistance · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.7
20DenmarkEurope14.8 Established → Advanced0.9% Unlikely0.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.6 S20Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
19AustraliaIndo-Pacific15.9 Advanced → Advanced0.9% Unlikely0.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S20Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
21PolandEurope12.8 Established → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.6 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksEnergy Infrastructure 11.5
23MalaysiaIndo-Pacific11.0 Transitional → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Extreme×1.4 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
22NorwayEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier0.8% Unlikely0.2%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S20Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
25JordanGulf and Middle East8.9 Foundational → Transitional0.8% Unlikely0.2%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.4 S14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksJustice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5
24AustriaEurope12.3 Established → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Severe×2.0 S13Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksAlliances & Security Cooperation 10

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.