O47 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Production & Innovation

Research translated into value

The nation consistently converts advanced education and research into useful products, services and processes with sustained practical adoption.

Why it matters

Research creates greater public and economic value when useful results reach users.

Signs it has been reached

  • More validated research outputs reach sustained practical use
  • Research-intensive enterprises generate recurring commercial revenues
  • Advanced graduates enter productive research and development roles

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Research Talent & Knowledge Creation
  • Innovation & Commercialisation
  • Technology Adoption & Diffusion

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
59
of 197 · 11 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Automated discovery step
38 of 59 nations
Typical headroom
×5.0
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Automated discovery step
Outbreak defence succeeds
Clean power threshold
Water-efficient food leap

38

9

6

6

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Standard Severe

One scenario at Extreme

48

10

1

Binding capability

Nations

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Artificial Intelligence

Energy Technologies

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

26

8

7

6

4

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

051015Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 8.2United StatesEurope 42Europe mean: 3.7GermanyFranceChina 1China mean: 16.4Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 2.4JapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.3Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 1.1Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0AlgeriaNigeriaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 19%, France 19%, Japan 18%, Netherlands 18%, South Korea 17%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5051015Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanyFranceJapanNetherlandsChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
2GermanyEurope17.6 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
1FranceEurope16.4 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
3JapanIndo-Pacific17.4 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely5.5%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
4NetherlandsEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely5.3%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
5South KoreaIndo-Pacific17.3 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely5.3%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 16
6United KingdomEurope17.3 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely5.2%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7SingaporeIndo-Pacific17.2 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely5.1%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · reaches FrontierAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1
8CanadaNorth America15.8 Advanced → Advanced16% Likely4.9%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
9ChinaChina16.3 Advanced → Advanced16% Likely4.9%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
10IsraelGulf and Middle East16.3 Advanced → Advanced15% Likely4.6%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
11TaiwanIndo-Pacific16.1 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.2%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 12.3
12SwedenEurope17.3 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.1%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
13FinlandEurope16.3 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely3.1%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5
14BelgiumEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced8.1% Likely2.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Innovation & CommercialisationArtificial Intelligence 11
15SwitzerlandEurope17.9 Advanced → Frontier8.1% Likely2.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Technology Adoption & Diffusion · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
16SpainEurope13.8 Established → Advanced7.3% Likely2.2%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Innovation & CommercialisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
17DenmarkEurope16.4 Advanced → Advanced6.9% Likely2.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
18ItalyEurope13.7 Established → Advanced5.2% Likely1.6%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Innovation & CommercialisationArtificial Intelligence 11.3
19AustriaEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced4.8% Possible1.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Innovation & CommercialisationArtificial Intelligence 10
20AustraliaIndo-Pacific15.4 Advanced → Advanced4.7% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.4 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
21NorwayEurope15.5 Advanced → Advanced4.5% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.4 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8
22IrelandEurope15.0 Advanced → Advanced3.6% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.4 S17Research Talent & Knowledge CreationRobotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5
24CzechiaEurope12.6 Established → Established2.5% Possible0.8%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S17Technology Adoption & DiffusionSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8
23PolandEurope12.3 Established → Established2.5% Possible0.8%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S17Technology Adoption & DiffusionSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
25IndiaSouth Asia11.4 Transitional → Established2.3% Possible0.7%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.7 S17Technology Adoption & DiffusionSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.