O19 · Failure outcome · Named · Critical Technology

Loss of advanced technology base

The nation can no longer make, obtain or maintain the advanced chips, materials and space and quantum systems that its industry, services and defence are built on.

Why it matters

Everything digital and much of defence rests on technology that few places can supply.

Signs it has been reached

  • Supply of advanced chips is interrupted for months
  • Critical programmes are delayed for want of components
  • Specialist firms and engineers leave

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
  • Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
  • Quantum Technologies
  • Space Technologies

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
55
of 197
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Cryptographic trust break
32 of 55 nations
Typical headroom
×4.6
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Cryptographic trust break
Trade bloc rupture
Severe pandemic
AI labour shock

32

21

1

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

51

4

Weakest buffer

Nations

Quantum Technologies

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Economic Leverage & Dependence

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks

24

7

6

4

4

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.1Europe 42Europe mean: 0.1IrelandChina 1China mean: 0.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.1VietnamMalaysiaSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.0Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0VenezuelaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0ArmeniaKazakhstan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Vietnam 0.7%, Malaysia 0.6%, Ireland 0.5%, Taiwan 0.5%, Thailand 0.4%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.500.20.40.6Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)VietnamMalaysiaIrelandTaiwanJapanGermanyChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1VietnamIndo-Pacific4.5 Nascent → Inception0.7% Unlikely0.2%Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail×2.4 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8
2MalaysiaIndo-Pacific6.7 Foundational → Nascent0.6% Unlikely0.2%Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail×3.0 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingEconomic Leverage & Dependence 12
3IrelandEurope6.0 Foundational → Inception0.5% Unlikely0.2%Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail×3.1 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3
4TaiwanIndo-Pacific12.7 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail×3.2 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7
5ThailandIndo-Pacific4.9 Nascent → Inception0.4% Unlikely0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.9 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingEconomic Leverage & Dependence 10.7
7North KoreaIndo-Pacific4.1 Nascent → Inception0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Severe×1.6 S01Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6
6SlovakiaEurope4.1 Nascent → Inception0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.2 S01Advanced Materials & ManufacturingDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8
8DenmarkEurope7.6 Foundational → Nascent0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.2 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingQuantum Technologies 10
9BelgiumEurope10.6 Transitional → Foundational0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.2 S09Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
10SwitzerlandEurope12.4 Established → Transitional0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.8 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingAdvanced Manufacturing 15.6
11AustriaEurope9.8 Transitional → Foundational0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.2 S09Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3
12BelarusRussia and Eurasia3.3 Nascent → Inception0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×2.3 S01Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
13United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle East5.4 Nascent → Inception0.2% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.9 S09Advanced Materials & ManufacturingStructural Transformation & Complexity 11.7
16PhilippinesIndo-Pacific3.2 Nascent → Inception0.2% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.1 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingEconomic Leverage & Dependence 8.7
15HungaryEurope5.6 Nascent → Inception0.2% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.5 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2
14CanadaNorth America12.2 Established → Transitional0.2% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.2 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingEconomic Leverage & Dependence 14.3
18BulgariaEurope3.8 Nascent → Inception0.2% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.4 S09Advanced Materials & ManufacturingQuantum Technologies 3.3
17CzechiaEurope7.1 Foundational → Nascent0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.6 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.4
20SloveniaEurope4.3 Nascent → Inception0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.4 S01Advanced Materials & ManufacturingQuantum Technologies 3.8
19NetherlandsEurope13.4 Established → Transitional0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×5.2 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7
23GreeceEurope4.4 Nascent → Inception0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.6 S09Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingQuantum Technologies 4.8
22LithuaniaEurope4.4 Nascent → Inception0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.6 S01Advanced Materials & ManufacturingQuantum Technologies 3.8
21MexicoLatin America and Caribbean5.5 Nascent → Inception0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.7 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.6
24South KoreaIndo-Pacific15.8 Advanced → Established0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.1 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2
26SingaporeIndo-Pacific11.7 Transitional → Foundational0.2% Remoteunder 0.1%Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.4 S01Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.