O20 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Critical Technology

Assured space services

The nation has dependable capacity and access to operate and protect the space services required for essential communications, observation, navigation and timing.

Why it matters

Assured space services improve civilian continuity, security awareness and control over essential technical functions.

Signs it has been reached

  • Essential space services meet verified continuity requirements
  • Satellite operations and replacement arrangements meet national needs
  • Navigation and timing services satisfy demanding reliability standards

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Space Technologies
  • Sensing, Timing & Navigation
  • Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure
  • Space Operations

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
32
of 197 · 3 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
17 of 32 nations
Typical headroom
×6.9
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Automated discovery step

17

15

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

30

2

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Artificial Intelligence

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

10

7

7

7

1

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

02468Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 1.1Europe 42Europe mean: 0.9GermanyGreeceLuxembourgChina 1China mean: 3.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.8South KoreaSingaporeThailandSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.1Africa 53Africa mean: 0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 8.1%, Germany 7.7%, Singapore 7.0%, Japan 4.8%, France 4.6%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.52002468Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaGermanySingaporeJapanChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific15.1 Advanced → Advanced8.1% Likely2.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 16
2GermanyEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced7.7% Likely2.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 15.7
3SingaporeIndo-Pacific9.5 Transitional → Transitional7.0% Likely2.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Space TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
4JapanIndo-Pacific16.7 Advanced → Frontier4.8% Possible1.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Space Technologies · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
5FranceEurope17.2 Advanced → Frontier4.6% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.5 S17Space Technologies · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
6NetherlandsEurope10.8 Transitional → Established4.5% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.5 S17Space TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7United KingdomEurope15.6 Advanced → Advanced4.2% Possible1.2%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Space TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
8ChinaChina18.1 Frontier → Frontier3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Space Technologies · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
9TaiwanIndo-Pacific10.7 Transitional → Established2.7% Possible0.8%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 12.3
10FinlandEurope8.9 Foundational → Transitional2.6% Possible0.8%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.9 S20Space TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
11SwedenEurope11.8 Transitional → Established2.4% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Space TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
12SwitzerlandEurope8.8 Foundational → Transitional2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S17Space TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
13BelgiumEurope7.9 Foundational → Transitional2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.9 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 11
14CanadaNorth America13.0 Established → Established2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Space TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
15IsraelGulf and Middle East15.0 Established → Advanced1.8% Possible0.5%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Space TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
16ItalyEurope14.0 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible0.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×1.9 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 11.3
17SpainEurope11.9 Transitional → Established1.2% Possible0.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.1 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
18AustraliaIndo-Pacific12.8 Established → Established1.1% Possible0.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.1 S20Space TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
19AustriaEurope5.5 Nascent → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×2.0 S17Space TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 10
21DenmarkEurope6.9 Foundational → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.9 S20Space TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
20NorwayEurope11.0 Transitional → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.1 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
23CzechiaEurope6.4 Foundational → Foundational0.4% Unlikely0.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.5 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8
22PolandEurope9.0 Foundational → Transitional0.4% Unlikely0.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.5 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2
24IrelandEurope3.4 Nascent → Nascent0.4% Unlikely0.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.3 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
25MalaysiaIndo-Pacific6.3 Foundational → Foundational0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.7 S20Space TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.