O03 · Failure outcome · Domain · Strategic Infrastructure

Broad fall in strategic infrastructure

The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 10 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Resource Infrastructure
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
Advanced Manufacturing
Transport Infrastructure
Communications & Digital Infrastructure
Financial Infrastructure
Social Infrastructure
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 172; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.2%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Regional war spillover; 86 of 172 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.6; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Regional war spillover

Core disaster

Breadbasket failure

Hybrid coercion

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

159

Weakest buffer

Nations

Maritime Power

Resource Infrastructure

Financial System Depth & Access

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Health System Capability

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Iran 1.5%, North Korea 1.4%, Georgia 1.2%, Armenia 1.2%, Laos 1.0%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Iran	Gulf and Middle East	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	1.5% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail	×2.4 S06	Energy Infrastructure	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5
2	North Korea	Indo-Pacific	5.8 Nascent → Inception	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.0 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8
3	Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	7.9 Foundational → Nascent	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.3 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3
4	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	6.9 Foundational → Nascent	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.3
6	Laos	Indo-Pacific	4.9 Nascent → Inception	1.0% Possible	0.3%	Regional war spillover Extreme+Hybrid coercion Major	×1.9 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0
5	Latvia	Europe	9.7 Transitional → Foundational	1.0% Possible	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.5 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 4.8
7	Lithuania	Europe	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 4.8
8	Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	9.0 Foundational → Nascent	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.3 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 5.8
9	Djibouti	Africa	4.0 Nascent → Inception	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Severeplans fail	×1.9 S07	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Financial System Depth & Access 3.2
10	Iceland	Europe	9.6 Transitional → Foundational	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3.8
11	Malta	Europe	8.8 Foundational → Nascent	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
12	Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	9.5 Transitional → Foundational	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.3 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 5.3
13	Slovenia	Europe	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3
14	Brunei	Indo-Pacific	7.0 Foundational → Nascent	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Core disaster Severeplans fail	×2.5 S07	Energy Infrastructure	Financial System Depth & Access 7.2
15	Cyprus	Europe	8.4 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
16	Montenegro	Europe	6.7 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 2.8
17	North Macedonia	Europe	7.2 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0
18	Slovakia	Europe	11.0 Transitional → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.5
19	Philippines	Indo-Pacific	9.6 Transitional → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Core disaster Severeplans fail	×2.7 S07	Energy Infrastructure	Social Infrastructure 9.4
21	Luxembourg	Europe	10.2 Transitional → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0
20	Switzerland	Europe	13.8 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.3
22	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	14.5 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×3.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5
24	Kosovo	Europe	5.1 Nascent → Inception	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Extreme	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7
23	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	6.6 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 1.3
27	Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	11.3 Transitional → Foundational	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Resource Infrastructure	Maritime Power 6.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.